Desastres Naturais

Artigo

Analysis of the hydrological disaster occurred in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil in September 2023: Vulnerabilities and risk management capabilities

Autores:
Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá, Daniela Ferreira Ribeiro, Jose Antonio Marengo, Marcelo Enrique Seluchi, Demerval Aparecido Gonçalves, Larissa Antunes da Silva, Luz Adriana Cuartas Pineda, Silvia Midori Saito

Revista:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104645

Artigo

Some evidence on the reduction of the disasters impact due to natural hazards in the Americas and the Caribbean after the 1990s

Autores:
Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes

Revista:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Edição:
Volume 75, 1 June 2022, 102984

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102984

This article identifies the method through which the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and the subsequent frameworks affected the outcomes of Disaster Risk Reduction policies among the countries in the Americas and the Caribbean, particularly in data with high reliability in the databases used for monitoring the progress of these policies. This article will address the following research question: Did the international agenda adopted by the UN for Disaster Risk Reduction after the 1990s lead to a positive impact measured in terms of deaths caused by disasters due to natural hazards in the Americas and Caribbean? The EM-DAT disaster database includes data spanning over the course of 120 years, is long enough to match statistical criteria, and includes information for all countries; therefore, data from this database has been adopted for this research. The analysis was conducted on both regional and national scales, as well as for each natural disaster subgroup adopted by EM-DAT, and the results are divided into two periods: before 1990 and after 1990. On a regional scale, a 140% increase was noted in the number of disasters after the 1990s, whereas the number of deaths decreased by 70%. On the national scale, similar behavior was noted for majority of countries and for all subgroups of di- sasters. In this article, a simple but innovative methodology is proposed for analyzing the impacts in each country, thereby making it possible to exclude some disasters with an anomalous impact, without affecting the analysis and results.

Artigo

Integrated crop-livestock systems: A sustainable land-use alternative for food production in the Brazilian Cerrado and Amazon.

Autores:
DOS REIS, JÚLIO CÉSAR; RODRIGUES, GERALDO STACHETTI; DE BARROS, INÁCIO; RIBEIRO RODRIGUES, RENATO DE ARAGÃO; GARRETT, RACHAEL D.; VALENTIM, JUDSON FERREIRA; KAMOI, MARIANA Y.T.; MICHETTI, MIQUEAS; WRUCK, FLÁVIO JESUS; Rodrigues-Filho, Saulo; PIMENTEL, PAULA EMILIA OLIVEIRA; SMUKLER, SEAN

Revista:
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION.

Edição:
v.1, p.124580, 2020.

DOI:
10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124580

Abstract

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is central to deal with the challenges of feeding a growing population while promoting a rational use of environmental and economic resources. Nowhere is this challenge more prominent than in Brazil, where low productivity and environmentally degrading agricultural activities occupy vast areas. We used the emergy synthesis approach, including innovative indices – emergy footprint and carbon-emergy output intensity – to assess and compare the environmental performance of an integrated crop-livestock system to a continuous crop and a continuous livestock system. Our analysis uses survey and empirical case study data from the 2017/18 crop season in Mato Grosso state, Brazil – the largest grain and beef producer in the country. Economic indicators such as gross revenue, production costs and profitability were calculated to complement the sustainability assessments. The emergy indices indicate that integrated crop-livestock system shows a balanced performance between input use and economic and environmental outcomes. In contrast, due to its heavy dependence on external inputs, the cropping system has poor environmental results, but the highest profitability. By excluding these environmental costs, current accounting of soy-corn production in Brazil dramatically overstates its net benefits to society and overall sustainability. The Emergy Sustainability Index for the integrated system was 0.66 and its Net Profit was USD 235.69 ha^-1, while for the continuous crop system the values were 0.47 and USD 295 ha⁻¹, respectively. The livestock system performed poorly in both, economic and environmental outcomes, underscoring the need to transition away from existing extensive systems. Livestock shows the highest positive greenhouse gas emissions, 7.98 E−09 tonCO_2eq for each joule produced, and Net Loss of USD 0.58 ha^-1. These results provide further support for Brazil’s investment in integrated systems as part of its climate mitigation and sustainable agricultural development plans and warrant consideration in sustainable agriculture initiatives in other countries where cattle production is widespread.

Artigo

Extended predictor screening, application and added value of statistical downscaling of a CMIP5 ensemble for single-site projections in Distrito Federal, Brazil.

Autores:
BORGES, P. A.; BARFUS, K.; WEISS, H.; BERNHOFER, C.

Revista:
International Journal of Climatology. Advance online publication, V. 37(1), p. 46-65, 2017.

DOI:
10.1002/joc.4686

Keywords:
Brazil, CMIP5, Distrito federal, IWRM, Precipitation, SDSM4.2, Statistical downscaling, Temperature,

As a contribution to an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) project in Distrito Federal, Brazil, we address several aspects for a credible downscaling of near-surface air temperature and precipitation using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM4.2). For instance, we apply a detailed screening of predictors, consider the end user needs in the validation procedure, assess the added value of the downscaling model and include several sources of uncertainties until the downscaling step. Results suggest that the interpolation of large-scale predictors to the target site is a reasonable alternative to predictors derived from grid-boxes. The validation metrics, measures (i.e. bias, root-mean-square error, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient) and quantile–quantile plots reveal that model tends to underestimate near-surface temperature and precipitation; whereas extreme values are subject of considerable uncertainties. Single-site projections at daily scale are derived from 27 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The downscaling model adds substantial value in terms of amplitude of variability when compared to the host coarse-resolution projections. Its performance is higher than a quantile-mapping bias correction technique, particularly in reproducing observed trends. In spite of the elevated level of uncertainties in the magnitude of change, most of the downscaled projections agree on positive changes in near-surface temperature and precipitation for the period of 2036–2055 when compared to the reference period (i.e. 1986–2005). The massive amount of downscaled projections is of limited application in hydrological studies and, therefore, we suggest a summarized group of projections which are representative to the central tendency and spread of the ensemble.

Artigo

Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on South America in Austral Summer

Autores:
RODRIGUES, R.; WOOLLINGS, T.

Revista:
J. Climate, v. 30, p. 1821-1837, 2017

DOI:
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0493.1

Keywords:
South America; South Atlantic convergence zone; Blocking; Madden-Julian oscillation; Rossby waves,

This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

Desastres Naturais

Últimas Publicações

Analysis of the hydrological disaster occurred in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil in September 2023: Vulnerabilities and risk management capabilities

Some evidence on the reduction of the disasters impact due to natural hazards in the Americas and the Caribbean after the 1990s

Integrated crop-livestock systems: A sustainable land-use alternative for food production in the Brazilian Cerrado and Amazon.

Extended predictor screening, application and added value of statistical downscaling of a CMIP5 ensemble for single-site projections in Distrito Federal, Brazil.

Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on South America in Austral Summer

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