Observational data and numerical modeling were used to investigate oceanic current wakes surrounding Fernando de Noronha Island (3°51′S–32°25′W) and Rocas Atoll (3°52′S–33°49′W). These two Brazilian systems are located in the western tropical Atlantic region and are under the influence of the westward flow of the central South Equatorial Current (cSEC). In order to highlight the effects of wakes on ocean dynamics, two different numerical simulations were performed, using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS): the first one including Fernando de Noronha Island and Rocas Atoll (Scenario I) and the second one with artificial removal of the island and atoll (Scenario NI). Simulations are validated through the Scenario I that well reproduces the wakes that give rise to the development of eddies downstream of FN and AR. These mesoscale structures have a strong influence on the thermodynamic properties surrounding the Island and the Atoll. Scenario NI allows evidence of the presence of an Island and Atoll shoaling mixed layer throughout the year, primarily on the western side of the Island and the Atoll. Mixing at the base of the mixed layer, inducing a subsurface cooling, is also enhanced in the downstream portion of the Island and Atoll, particularly when the cSEC is strengthened. These simulations support the “island mass effect” on the high productivity of subsurface waters generally observed on the western side of these islands.

Multiple biotic and abiotic drivers regulate the balance between CO2 assimilation and release in surface waters. In the present study, we compared in situ measurements of plankton carbon metabolism (primary production and respiration) to calculated air–water CO2 fluxes (based on abiotic parameters) during 1 year (2008) in a hypereutrophic tropical estuary (Recife Harbor, NE Brazil – 08°03′S, 34°52′W) to test the hypothesis that high productivity leads to a net CO2 flux from the atmosphere. The calculated CO2 fluxes through the air–water interface (FCO2) were negative throughout the year (FCO2: –2 to –9 mmol C·m−2·day−1), indicating that Recife Harbor is an atmospheric CO2 sink. Respiration rates of the plankton community ranged from 2 to 45 mmol C·m−2·hr−1. Gross primary production ranged from 0.2 to 281 mmol C·m−2·hr−1, exceeding respiration during most of the year (net autotrophy), except for the end of the wet season, when the water column was net heterotrophic. The present results highlight the importance of including eutrophic tropical shallow estuaries in global air–water CO2 flux studies, in order to better understand their role as a sink of atmospheric CO2.

As a contribution to an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) project in Distrito Federal, Brazil, we address several aspects for a credible downscaling of near-surface air temperature and precipitation using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM4.2). For instance, we apply a detailed screening of predictors, consider the end user needs in the validation procedure, assess the added value of the downscaling model and include several sources of uncertainties until the downscaling step. Results suggest that the interpolation of large-scale predictors to the target site is a reasonable alternative to predictors derived from grid-boxes. The validation metrics, measures (i.e. bias, root-mean-square error, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient) and quantile–quantile plots reveal that model tends to underestimate near-surface temperature and precipitation; whereas extreme values are subject of considerable uncertainties. Single-site projections at daily scale are derived from 27 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The downscaling model adds substantial value in terms of amplitude of variability when compared to the host coarse-resolution projections. Its performance is higher than a quantile-mapping bias correction technique, particularly in reproducing observed trends. In spite of the elevated level of uncertainties in the magnitude of change, most of the downscaled projections agree on positive changes in near-surface temperature and precipitation for the period of 2036–2055 when compared to the reference period (i.e. 1986–2005). The massive amount of downscaled projections is of limited application in hydrological studies and, therefore, we suggest a summarized group of projections which are representative to the central tendency and spread of the ensemble.

The objective of this work was to develop and evaluate a method for estimating corn yield using a minimum number of parameters and limited information about crop management. The proposed method estimates potential and attainable yields based on the technological level of the production systems and on relatively simple agrometeorological models. Corn yield was estimated for the crop seasons from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, considering several locations and regions in Brazil, and was compared with the actual yield data from official surveys. There was a high correlation between the estimated and observed yield (0.76≤R²<0.92; p<0.01), with model efficiency (E1’) ranging from 0.45 to 0.73; mean relative error (MRE) between -0.9 and 2.4%; and mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 70 kg ha^-1, depending on the technological level adopted. Based on these results, the proposed yield model can be recommended to forecast yields all over the country, contributing to make this process more precise and accurate.

This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

The inoculation of cereal crops with plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) is a potential strategy to improve fertilizer-N acquisition by crops in soils with low capacity to supply N. A study was conducted to assess the impact of three inoculants on grain yield, protein content, and urea-¹⁵ N recovery in maize (Zea mays L.) under Cerrado soil and climate conditions.

The accurate representation of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the climate system presents a challenge in General Circulation Models. This paper analyzes the performance of the aerosol component of two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM): the Europe Centre Hamburg Model – Hamburg Aerosol Model (ECHAM-HAM), and the Community Atmosphere Model – Modal Aerosol Model (CAM5-MAM3) and their comparison with aerosol observations. We analyzed the spatial distribution of aerosols over Brazil represented in terms of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by these models. The model results are compared to measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground station, and satellite observations provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). While both the models provide AODs at 550 nm, only HAM provides the Angström exponent that is compared with AERONET measurements. The comparison between the model simulations and the satellite observations of AOD show that the models can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions, however models underestimate AOD for the four cities and for almost every South American continent during all seasons. During the dry season, characterized by intense biomass burning, CAM5-MAM3 shows inconsistent, but comparatively better results that ECHAM-HAM, with negative biases over Northern and Northeastern regions of Brazil. The Angström parameter is reasonably reproduced by ECHAM-HAM, except for Cuiabá, indicating that the particle size distribution is correctly represented in most cities.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of lipid sources on voluntary intake, digestibility, performance, and CH4 emission of Nellore steers grazing Brachiaria brizantha cv. Xaraés forage in the dry season. Forty-five Nellore steers with average weight of 442±34 kg were alloted into one of the five treatments: without additional fat; with palm oil; with linseed oil; with protected fat; and with whole soybeans. The supplements were provided daily and quantities were adjusted to 1% of body weight and diets were formulated in accordance with the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System. The experimental design was completely randomized with five treatments and two replications. There were no effects on dry matter, organic matter, and neutral detergent fiber intake with the inclusion of lipids in the diet. The neutral detergent fiber showed decreased digestibility in animals receiving linseed oil and palm oil treatments compared with animals receiving the diet without additional fat. The linseed oil treatment reduced CH4 emissions by 38% when expressed in mg/d/kg BW and tended to reduce the emission in g/d/kg BW0.75. Lipid sources did not affect the weight gain of the animals. The intake and performance of grazing Nellore steers supplemented at 1% body weight with lipid sources were not modified. However, fiber digestibility was reduced with palm or linseed oil addition. Linseed oil reduced enteric CH4 emissions. Linseed oil has the potential to reduce enteric CH4 emissions in continuous tropical grazing systems based on B. brizantha grass.

The Rural Sustentável project aims to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, reduce poverty, and promote sustainable rural development in the Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic Forest biomes: by restoring deforested and degraded land, and by facilitating and promoting the uptake of low carbon agricultural technologies. The project offers farmers a) access to information, through demonstration units and field days; b) access to technical assistance, through in-person and online training and capacity-building; c) access to rural credit, through collaborative farmer-technician partnerships, and d) financial incentives, in the form of results based financing to successful farmer-technician teams. The project is still in its implementation stage, but the innovative design and theory of change of this project offer insights into possible mechanisms for promoting forest restoration on private lands in the tropics.

In Brazil’s central savanna region, government policy is to encourage the conversion of conventional plough tillage (PT) agriculture to no-till (NT) and raise the productivity of under-utilized pastures, including their conversion to integrated crop-livestock (ICL) systems, with the objective of increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) at the expense of atmospheric carbon dioxide. An experiment was established in 1991 by liming and fertilizing at two levels an area of native vegetation (NV). The treatments, replicated in randomized plots, included pastures, continuous cropping and ICL systems under PT or NT. The aim of this study was to quantify the SOC accumulation to 100 cm depth under these treatments over time. The high C:N ratios suggested that there was a high proportion of charcoal present in the soil. Increasing fertilizer inputs had no overall significant effect on SOC stocks. Stocks of SOC changed little under pastures. Analyses of ¹³C abundance showed that higher fertilizer inputs increased the decomposition rate of C derived from NV under pure grass pastures. Continuous cropping under NT preserved SOC and under PT there were significant losses. The highest SOC stocks were found under ILP treatments, but not all ILP treatments accumulated SOC even under NT. These results indicate that government initiatives to substitute PT with NT and to intensify beef cattle production will have only modest short-term gains in SOC accumulation.

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^stcentury. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.