Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes.
CHANG, M. , DERECZYNSKI, C. , FREITAS, M. AND CHOU, S.
American Journal of Climate Change, v. 3, p. 326-337, 2014.
10.4236/ajcc.2014.33029
Climate Change, Climate Extremes, Index,
A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.
Effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil.
CUNHA, D. A.; COELHO, A. B.; FÉRES, J. G.; BRAGA, M. J.
Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, v. 36, p. 1-9, 2014.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4025/actasciagron.v36i1.15375
Adaptation, Climatic variability, Irrigated farming,
The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil. Temperature and precipitation projections for the 2010-2099 periods were employed under a number of different climate scenarios according the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that irrigation adoption will be affected by climate change. Given current conditions, irrigation has generally been adopted in Brazil to cope with reduced precipitation and temperature variations. The estimated irrigation probabilities in the future scenarios were quite different across Brazilian regions. The main explanation for this pattern is the distinct climatic conditions and production structures. Considering future climate change, over the next 30 years (2010 to 2039), the irrigation probability is expected to increase in all Brazilian regions. However, this trend is reversed in the long run.
Irrigation as an adaptive strategy to climate change: an economic perspective on Brazilian agriculture.
CUNHA, D. A.; COELHO, A. B.; FÉRES, J. G.
Environment and Development Economics, v. 20(1), p. 1-23, 2014.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X14000102
This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers’ vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.
Experimentando (em) redes. Linha Mestra (Associação de Leitura do Brasil)
Trend analysis and uncertainties of mean surface air temperature, precipitation and extreme indices in CMIP3 GCMs in Distrito Federal, Brazil.
BORGES, P. A.; BARFUS, K.; WEISS, H.; BERNHOFER, C.
Environmental Earth Sciences, v. 72(2), p. 4817-4833, 2014.
10.1007/s12665-014-3301-y
Brazil, Distrito federal, Extremes, GCM, Precipitation, Temperature, Trend, Uncertainty,
A key challenge for climate projection science is to serve the growing needs of impact assessments in an environment with substantial differences in the projections of climate models and an increasing number of relevant climate model results. In order to assist the assessment of water resources impacts under future climate change, this work provides a synthesis of the simulations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the region of Distrito Federal, Brazil. The work analyzes projections of mean surface air temperature and precipitation of 22 GCMs, as well as seven extreme indices of 10 GCMs. Trends of the multi-model ensemble median, as well as their significance, were calculated. The consistency in the sign of change was assessed through the percentage of agreement of simulations with the median. Finally, the probability density function of the multi-model ensemble provides valuable information about the uncertainties of projections. Investigations were performed for annual and seasonal temporal scales for the period 2011–2050. The main results here identified are: (a) a consensus of the multi-model ensemble and median to increasing temperature; (b) a slightly, but less consistent, decrease of precipitation in the dry season; and (c) increase of heat waves and droughts events, although changes in precipitation extremes are much less coherent than for temperature. The approach used gives a comprehensive assessment of the possible future climate until the middle of the twenty-first century, as well as the uncertainties involved in the multi-model ensemble projections.
Percepción y preocupación ambiental en distintas regiones metropolitanas del Brasil: eslabones perdidos y evidencia adicional
GUEDES, G. R.; NAWROTZKI, R.; CARMO, R. L.
Notas de Población (Impresa), v. 41 (99), p. 133-175, 2014.
condiciones ambientales objetivas, modelos de clases latentes de múltiples niveles, nivel socioeconómico, Preocupación y percepción ambientales, regiones metropolitanas del Brasil,
En este artículo se revisan los patrones de percepción y preocupación ambiental en distintas regiones metropolitanas del Brasil y la forma en que estos se ven influenciado por el nivel socioeconómico y las condiciones ambientales objetivas. En virtud de los resultados previos de Nawrotzki, Guedes y Carmo (2014), nos preguntamos si en la relación entre el nivel socioeconómico, las condiciones ambientales objetivas y la preocupación intervienen diferencias de percepción respecto de las cuestiones ambientales y los actores involucrados. Creemos que la preocupación puede ser un concepto muy abstracto como para utilizarse libremente como sinónimo de actitud ambiental. Además, los elementos que preceden a la toma de decisiones, como la conciencia y percepción ambiental, que son componentes clave de la preocupación ambiental, no fueron tenidos en cuenta en el análisis de Nawrotzki, Guedes y Carmo. En esta ocasión, utilizamos un nuevo conjunto de datos, recolectados en 2007, obtenidos a partir de una muestra representativa de habitantes de las regiones metropolitanas de Campinas y la Baixada Santista, en el Complejo Metropolitano Extendido de São Paulo. Estos son los mismos datos utilizados en Nawrotzki, Guedes y Carmo (2014). Mediante la expansión de la idea de evaluación del perfil ambiental con la incorporación de la conciencia ambiental y la percepción de los problemas ambientales, junto con la preocupación ambiental, utilizamos modelos de clases latentes con efecto aleatorio, asumiendo que esas tres dimensiones ambientales están relacionadas y deben modelarse juntas como una estructura latente dependiente. Los resultados obtenidos a partir de nuestros modelos indican que los problemas ambientales objetivos exacerban la percepción de los problemas ambientales, aunque la preocupación por el medio ambiente claramente depende de la riqueza, con lo que ciertos grupos pobres enfrentan limitaciones a la hora de traducir su percepción de las cuestiones ambientales apremiantes en una actitud proambiental.
Guidelines for use of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique to measure enteric methane emissions from ruminants
Variations in the 15N natural abundance of plant-available N with soil depth: Their influence on estimates of contributions of biological N2 fixation to sugar cane.
BAPTISTA, R. B.; BAPTISTA, R. B.; ALVES, B. J. R.; MORAES, R. F.; SHULTZ, N.; LEITE, J. M.; BODDEY, R. M.; URQUIAGA, S.
Applied Soil Ecology, v. 73, p. 124-129, 2014.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2013.08.008
BNF, Saccharum spp., Soil depth, δ15N,
The objective of this study was to investigate the application of the 15N natural abundance technique to quantify BNF inputs to different varieties of field-grown sugarcane. The experiment was planted on a low-fertility sandy soil and no N fertilizer was added. Cane yields of seven Brazilian commercial varieties at the first harvest after 18 months were similar to the mean national yields. Nitrogen accumulation of most varieties exceeded 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 even after two ratoons. The 15N abundance values of reference weed plants at the first harvest were significantly higher than leaf sample of the cane indicating inputs of BNF between 80 and 170 kg N ha−1 during the plant crop (18 months). The hypothesis that the lower 15N abundance of the cane varieties was due to the deeper rooting habit of the cane enabling it to access mineral N of significantly lower 15N abundance than present in the rooting zone of weed reference species was discarded, as weed reference species grown in soil samples taken at seven depth intervals to 75 cm showed higher 15N abundance than samples taken from the surface 10 cm. Weeds taken from the plots of the ratoon crops did not differ significantly in 15N abundance from the sugarcane varieties which suggested insignificant contributions of BNF at this time.
Effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil
CUNHA, D. A.; COELHO, A. B.; FÉRES, J. G.; BRAGA, M. J.
Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, v. 36(1), p. 1-9, 2014
http://dx.doi.org/10.4025/actasciagron.v36i1.15375
Climatic variability; adaptation; irrigated farming,
The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of climate change on irrigation adoption in Brazil. Temperature and precipitation projections for the 2010-2099 periods were employed under a number of different climate scenarios according the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that irrigation adoption will be affected by climate change. Given current conditions, irrigation has generally been adopted in Brazil to cope with reduced precipitation and temperature variations. The estimated irrigation probabilities in the future scenarios were quite different across Brazilian regions. The main explanation for this pattern is the distinct climatic conditions and production structures. Considering future climate change, over the next 30 years (2010 to 2039), the irrigation probability is expected to increase in all Brazilian regions. However, this trend is reversed in the long run.
Simulação dos componentes da evapotranspiração sob condições climáticas atuais e de cenários climáticos futuros de aquecimento global com o uso de modelos de clima-vegetação
CARDOSO, G. M.; JUSTINO, F.
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Impresso), v. 29(1), p. 85-95, 2014
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862014000100009
Modelagem numérica, mudanças climáticas, Penman-Monteith,
O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar a distribuição espacial dos componentes da evapotranspiração de referência modificada (ETr) no Brasil e, posteriormente, a variabilidade temporal por meio da técnica da análise harmônica. Para isso, foi feita inicialmente uma análise de variância, fase e amplitude para o tempo presente (1980-2000) e, em seguida, feita uma projeção com o tempo futuro (2080-2100), com base no cenário A2 do Painel Intergovernamental para as Mudanças Climáticas. A equação utilizada foi a de Penman-Monteith, padronizada pela Food and Agriculture and Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 1998. As simulações foram conduzidas com o modelo regional de clima (MM5), acoplado a um modelo de vegetação potencial (MVP). Os termos aerodinâmico e radiativo apresentaram um ciclo anual que é dominante na região amazônica e Sul do Brasil, enquanto na região Sudeste o ciclo semestral tem maior destaque. As maiores variações na amplitude da ETr foram identificadas no semiárido nordestino e no extremo sul do Brasil. As mudanças na ETr, devido ao aquecimento global, foram máximas na região central do Brasil e Amazônica. Ainda foi observado que, sob condições de aquecimento global, as variações do termo aerodinâmico tornam-se mais importantes do que as variações do termo radiativo para a ETr total.
Mensuração dos efeitos de mudanças climáticas na Bahia
FARIA, W. R.; HADDAD, E. A.
Bahia Análise & Dados, v. 24(1), p. 25-38, 2014
ISSN 0103 8117
Bahia, Equilíbrio geral, mudanças climáticas,
O artigo apresenta os efeitos de mudanças climáticas sobre a economia da Bahia. Os principais resultados indicaram uma variação negativa do PIB real da Bahia entre -0,028% e -0,114%, em um cenário, e entre -0,029% e -0,075% no outro. Estes dados, associados ao fato de que a Bahia possui produtividade agrícola de algumas culturas inferior à média nacional, sugerem que políticas públicas e privadas podem ser adotadas para mitigar os efeitos de mudanças climáticas e aumentar o desempenho, em termos de produção agrícola, relativo aos outros estados do Brasil (incentivo ao cultivo alternativo de algumas lavouras e medidas de estímulo para adaptação às mudanças climáticas). Os resultados foram obtidos a partir do desenvolvimento de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC) com especificação detalhada do uso da terra para a Bahia. Tal especificação foi incorporada no modelo de forma a considerar 13 distintos usos da terra. Para analisar os efeitos econômicos de mudanças climáticas, foi utiliza-da uma metodologia que integrou o EGC a um modelo econométrico. As simulações tiveram como referência informações de um período-base e de projeções e cenários climáticos do IPCC.