Climate change leads to species’ range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species’ distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species’ distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

Oil palm is a widely cultivated palm tree, whose oil is ranked first in supply and export among all vegetable oils in the world. Despite being a minor producer and major importer of palm oil, Embrapa, Brazil’s leading agricultural research agency, has identified deforested land with soil and climate suitable for oil palm cultivation whose combined area is twice that currently being employed throughout the world, most of which located in the Brazilian Amazon. This region, characterized by low socioeconomic indicators, as well as precarious access to energy, has recently become the focus of Brazilian Government policies whose aim is to ensure that the observed expansion of oil palm occurs in an orderly manner, within the precepts of the region’s environmental and economic zoning, currently in deployment. With a doubling of its cultivated area between 2004 and 2010 and an even faster projected growth in 2015, the rapid expansion of oil palm in the Brazilian Amazon presents great potential to influence the development of the region. This article provides an updated picture of the palm oil sector in Brazil, its prospects, opportunities and challenges, with a particular focus on the Amazon region and the rising use of palm oil as biodiesel.

The carbon dioxide flux through the air–water interface of coastal estuarine systems must be quantified to understand the regional balance of carbon and its transport through adjacent coastal regions. We estimated and calculated the emissions of carbon dioxide (FCO2) and the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) values in 28 estuarine environments at a variety of spatial scales in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil. The results showed a mean FCO2 (water to air) of 55 ± 45 mmol·m−2·d−1. Additionally, a negative correlation between dissolved oxygen saturation and pCO2 was observed, indicating a control by biological processes and especially by organic matter degradation. This leads to increased dissolved CO2 concentration in estuarine waters which results in a pCO2 that reached 8,638 μatm. Our study suggests that northern and northeastern Brazilian estuaries act as sources of atmospheric CO2. The range of pCO2 observed were similar to those found in inner estuaries in other places around the world, with the exception of a few semi-arid estuaries (Köppen climate classification – BSh) in which record low levels of pCO2 have been detected.

In this paper, we address the question of what proportion of biodiversity is represented within protected areas. We assessed the effectiveness of different protected area types at multiple scales in representing primate biodiversity in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. We used point locality data and distribution data for primate species within 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° spatial resolution grids, and computed the area of reserves within each cell. Four different approaches were used – no reserves (A), exclusively strict use reserves (B), strict and sustainable use reserves (C), and strict and sustainable use reserves and indigenous lands (D). We used the complementarity concept to select reserve networks. The proportions of cells that were classified as reserves at a grid resolution of 1° were 37%, 64%, and 88% for approaches B, C and D, respectively. Our comparison of these approaches clearly showed the effect of an increase in area on species representation. Representation was consistently higher at coarser resolutions, indicating the effect of grain size. The high number of irreplaceable cells for selected networks identified based on approach A could be attributed to the use of point locality occurrence data. Although the limited number of point occurrences for some species may have been due to a Wallacean shortfall, in some cases it may also be the result of an actual restricted geographic distribution. The existing reserve system cannot be ignored, as it has an established structure, legal protection status, and societal recognition, and undoubtedly represents important elements of biodiversity. However, we found that strict use reserves (which are exclusively dedicated to biodiversity conservation) did not effectively represent primate species. This finding may be related to historical criteria for selecting reserves based on political, economic, or social motives.

Quantifications of CO2 fluxes across the air–water interface of estuarine ecosystems are needed to understand regional carbon balances. In this study, we estimate the amount of carbon emitted from tropical estuaries of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, using measurements of temperature, alkalinity, salinity and pH at stations located in the estuaries. The results showed that the average CO2 fluxes (+51 ± 32 mmol m−2 day−1) were mainly a product of the input of aloctone organic matter from urban centers with high population densities (~1,000 inhabitants.km−2) adjacent to the estuarine systems. This organic material increased the amount of aqueous CO2, which increased the pCO2 to 8,900 μatm. October, November and December had the highest monthly averages of the parameters associated with the carbonate system (HCO3−, dissolved inorganic carbon, aqueous carbon dioxide, CO32−, total alkalinity, temperature and pH), whereas the averages in July correlated with the CO2 fluxes. Multivariate analysis revealed that estuarine areas near the most densely populated areas (Beberibe—9,000 inhabitants.km−2 and Paratibe—3,000 inhabitants.km−2) were positively correlated with high CO2 fluxes and high pCO2.

O problema que mobilizou este trabalho passa pelo entendimento do que são Redes: o que pode uma rede? Como podem fazer funcionar a Vida? O que criam? Quais outras versões podem reinventar/diferenciar as noções habituais? O que implica produzir conhecimentos, sensações e afetos em rede? Como tais pesquisas e pensamentos em rede se abrem à experimentação de um futuro e uma humanidade por vir?

Greenhouse gas reduction and energy saving are becoming two important issues in both industrialized and developing countries, and policymakers are developing means to reduce total domestic energy use. We evaluate and compare the direct and the indirect energy use both in the People’s Republic of China (China) and the United States of America (US) by looking at a series of hybrid energy input–output tables (1997, 2002, and 2007). We also apply SDA (structural decomposition analysis), to identify the factors causing energy intensity (energy use per unit of gross domestic product) to differ between the two countries, which lead to potential energy-saving options. Our results show that, besides the differences in direct energy use, huge differences also exist in indirect energy use between the two countries. Differences in indirect energy use are mainly due to differences in technology. Technological change and industrial-structure change are key factors to explain the inequality of energy intensity, while there is a significant trend towards the convergence of sectoral energy efficiency between the two countries.

Fiz deste exercício textual, um jogo. Tudo porque fui instigado por Elaine Schmidlin (2013) a escrever sobre/com os postais remetidos pela pesquisadora para mim através do correio convencional. Cartões que habitam, entrelaçados à escrita, sua tese de doutorado. Eles foram tecidos por artistas visuais, que compuseram paisagens questionadoras dos modos de ensinar sobre/com arte. Este texto transitou entre tornar-se um parecer à referida tese (visto que fui membro titular da banca de avaliação) e um ensaio para ser apresentado no 19° Congresso de Leitura do Brasil (COLE). Considerei ser um feliz encontro este entre o parecer sobre/com a tese de Elaine e o texto a ser pensado para o referido evento. Um ensaio entre estes vastos mundos que me foram ofertados. Segui para esta composição escrita a sugestão de Milton José de Almeida (2009): “partir do caos aparente da imagem [do postal], encarar o mistério dos intervalos” (p. 36) entre os cortes, recortes, composições, montagens de um texto que está – neste presente momento em que você o está lendo – em edição.

Uma pesquisa etnográfica no sertão cearense, o conceito de mimese corpórea em produção teatral e um filme documentário sobre rastejadores de cangaceiros na caatinga do Ceará, Brasil, são pontos de partida, neste texto, para uma discussão sobre a natureza do processo de “leitura de sinais” no mundo. As reflexões apresentadas sugerem que tais processos sejam entendidos menos como interpretação ou decodificação, e mais como um saber mover-se, no qual o compartilhamento existencial – em especial, a ingestão de substâncias – é elemento fundamental. Os materiais analisados apontam, ainda, para o fato de que a direcionalidade implicada em tal saber mover-se é recorrentemente entendida como dimensão visceral. As vísceras, desse modo, transformam-se em locus privilegiado da experiência e ação no mundo, sendo superfície de contato e equipamento transformador ao mesmo tempo. Tal perspectiva traz novas e instigantes oportunidades à teoria social.

Processos globais como a perda de habitat, superexploração de recursos naturais, invasão biológica e mudanças climáticas estão conduzindo muitas espécies à extinção. Nesse cenário de alto risco de extinção, qual deve ser o critério para determinar prioridades de conservação? O que, onde e como proteger a biodiversidade? A resposta não é simples. Entre os efeitos esperados das mudanças climáticas, pode-se incluir o deslocamento das espécies para um espaço climático mais favorável, até mesmo fora de uma unidade de conservação. No entanto, eleger prioridades para a conservação da biodiversidade implica ir além das espécies, fazendo-se necessário a inclusão da história evolutiva e da manutenção dos processos nas comunidades. Aqui, apresentamos um panorama sobre os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre biodiversidade e como incluí-los em estudos de priorização espacial para a conservação. Ressaltamos a importância da conservação de anfíbios da Mata Atlântica, grupo mais ameaçado de extinção entre os vertebrados e, finalmente, apresentamos e discutimos estratégias de conservação consideram mais que a riqueza de espécies, incluindo também informações sobre a diversidade filogenética e funcional.

Wetlands cover approximately 6% of the Earth’s surface. They are frequently found at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are strongly dependent on the water cycle. For this reason, wetlands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Mangroves and floodplain ecosystems are some of the most important environments for the Amazonian population, as a source of proteins and income, and are thus the types of wetlands chosen for this review. Some of the main consequences that can be predicted from climate change for wetlands are modifications in hydrological regimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundations. A possible reduction in rainfall can cause a decrease of the areas of mangroves and floodplains, with a consequent decline in their species numbers. Conversely, an increase in rainfall would probably cause the substitution of plant species, which would not be able to survive under new conditions for a long period. An elevation in water temperature on the floodplains would cause an increase in frequency and duration of hypoxic or anoxic episodes, which might further lead to a reduction in growth rates or the reproductive success of many species. In mangroves, an increase in water temperature would influence the sea level, causing losses of these environments through coastal erosion processes. Therefore, climate change will likely cause the loss of, or reduction in, Amazonian wetlands and will challenge the adaptability of species, composition and distribution, which will probably have consequences for the human population that depend on them.

Background
New sources of hydroclimate information based on forecast models and observational data have the potential to greatly improve the management of water resources in semi-arid regions prone to drought. Better management of climate-related risks and opportunities requires both new methods to develop forecasts of drought indicators and river flow, as well as better strategies to incorporate these forecasts into drought, river or reservoir management systems. In each case the existing institutional and policy context is key, making a collaborative approach involving stakeholders essential.

Methods
This paper describes work done at the IRI over the past decade to develop statistical hydrologic forecast and water allocation models for the semi arid regions of NE Brazil (the “Nordeste”) and central northern Chile based on seasonal climate forecasts.

Results
In both locations, downscaled precipitation forecasts based on lagged SST predictors or GCM precipitation forecasts exhibit quite high skill. Spring-summer melt flow in Chile is shown to be highly predictable based on estimates of previous winter precipitation, and moderately predictable up to 6 months in advance using climate forecasts. Retrospective streamflow forecasts here are quite effective in predicting reductions in water rights during dry years. For the multi-use Oros reservoir in NE Brazil, streamflow forecasts have the most potential to optimize water allocations during multi-year low-flow periods, while the potential is higher for smaller reservoirs, relative to demand.

Conclusions
This work demonstrates the potential value of seasonal climate forecasting as an integral part of drought early warning and for water allocation decision support systems in semi-arid regions. As human demands for water rise over time this potential is certain to rise in the future.