Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region’s relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

O PLANO Setorial de Mitigação e de Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de Carbono na Agricultura, conhecido como Plano ABC, tem o objetivo de garantir o aperfeiçoamento contínuo das práticas agropecuárias que reduzam a emissão de gases do efeito estufa (GEEs). O Plano ABC foi delineado em 2009, no contexto da Conferência do Clima da ONU em Copenhague, a COP-15.

Approximately 57% of the Brazilian northeast region is recognized as semi-arid land and has been undergoing intense land use processes in the last decades, which have resulted in severe degradation of its natural assets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify the areas that are susceptible to desertification in this region based on the 11 influencing factors of desertification (pedology, geology, geomorphology, topography data, land use and land cover change, aridity index, livestock density, rural population density, fire hot spot density, human development index, conservation units) which were simulated for two different periods: 2000 and 2010. Each indicator were assigned weights ranging from 1 to 2 (representing the best and the worst conditions), representing classes indicating low, moderate and high susceptibility to desertification. The results indicate that 94% of the Brazilian northeast region is under moderate to high susceptibility to desertification. The areas that were susceptible to soil desertification increased by approximately 4.6% (83.4 km2) from 2000 to 2010. The implementation of the methodology provides the technical basis for decision-making that involves mitigating actions and the first comprehensive national assessment within the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification framework.

O artigo tem como objetivo analisar a construção ideológica do pensamento ocidental a respeito dos indígenas e de seus direitos para que seja possível construir valores baseados no respeito à alteridade dos povos indígenas. Influenciado pelas teorias antropológicas evolucionistas e pela proposta de controle territorial para formação do Estado nacional, o direito ocidental desconsiderou os direitos próprios dos povos indígenas e instituiu um modelo de normas generalizado e descontextualizado da realidade desses inúmeros povos que vivem no país. A partir dessa análise, a pesquisa, baseada em referências bibliográficas, propõe-se a evidenciar os valores etnocêntricos instituídos ao longo da história, que serviram, dentre outros, para orientar a relação do Estado e da sociedade envolvente com os povos originários. Nesse contexto, pode-se afirmar que o respeito à diversidade cultural assegurada pela atual Constituição Federal depende de um reconhecimento por parte do Estado de que cada sociedade possui a sua forma própria de organização social e de instituição de regras.

Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil’s vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output—which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.

Among the options for sustainable exploitation of forests, extraction of a range of non-timber forest products presents low environmental impact. This paper develops a Social Account Matrix (SAM) for the Amazon region which describes the structure of jobs and income creation in those non-timber activities and highlights the linkages with the rest of the economy, as well as the degree of processing of forest products both for local use and exports. SAM-based multipliers are derived to analyse the interconnection between the forest sectors and the rest of the economy. Results show the limitation of those activities in terms of jobs and income creation, although labour multipliers in some primary activities, as well as in their processing industries, were found to be high. Logging and timber related activities were shown to play the most prominent role in the Amazon economy among all the forest activities.

Spanish
Entre las opciones para la explotación sostenible de los bosques, la explotación de una gama de productos no maderables del bosque es una que tiene un bajo impacto ambiental. Este artículo desarrolla una Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS) para la región amazónica que describe la estructura de los puestos de trabajo y la generación de ingresos en las actividades no maderables y destaca los vínculos con el resto de la economía, así como el grado de transformación de los productos forestales, tanto para uso local como para la exportación. Se obtuvieron multiplicadores basados en la MCS para analizar la interconexión entre los sectores forestales y el resto de la economía. Los resultados muestran lo limitado de esas actividades en términos de empleo y generación de ingresos, a pesar de que se encontraron valores elevados para los multiplicadores de mano de obra en algunas de las actividades primarias, así como en sus industrias de transformación. Entre todas las actividades forestales, se observó que el aprovechamiento de la madera y actividades relacionadas desempeñan el papel predominante en la economía amazónica.

French
Parmi les options d’exploitation durable des forêts, l’extraction d’un éventail de produits forestiers autres que le bois présente un impact environnemental faible. Ce papier développe une matrice de compte social (SAM) pour la région amazonienne, qui décrit la structure des emplois et de la création de revenus dans les activités autres que le bois, et souligne leurs liens avec le reste de l’économie, ainsi que le degré de traitement des produits forestiers pour l’usage local et pour les exportations. Des multiplicateurs basés sur la SAM sont dérivés pour analyser les liens réciproques entre les secteurs forestiers et le reste de l’économie. Les résultats exposent les limitations de ces activités en termes d’emploi et de création de revenus, bien que les multiplicateurs de travail dans certaines activités primaires, ainsi que dans les industries de traitement étaient élevés. La coupe du bois et les activités liées au bois se retrouvaient jouant le rôle le plus prééminent dans l’économie de l’Amazonie, parmi les activités forestières.

Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied drivers can underestimate deforestation rates by as much as 50%. We show that years with the highest deforestation rates also correlate with large administrative shifts caused by presidential elections which results in periods of managerial instability associated with episodic inefficiency, leading to weak institutions unable to properly combat illegal deforestation. Although surveillance and regulatory action plans to combat deforestation have held back deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon since 2005, our results suggest that environmental management institutions should be aware such administration shifts set a burden on the policy targets associated with conservation policies. Institutional vulnerability immediately after major elections is an acknowledged fact in Brazil, though it has been mostly disregarded as an indicator of ecological threat.

Size-fractioned phytoplankton (pico, nano and microplankton) biomass and production were estimated throughout a year at Recife harbor (NE Brazil), a shallow well mixed tropical hypereutrophic estuary with short residence times but restricted water renewal. Intense loads of P-PO4 (maximum 14 μM) resulted in low N:P ratios (around 2:1), high phytoplankton biomass (B = 7.1–72 μg chl-a L−1), production (PP = 10–2657 μg C L−1 h−1) and photosynthetic efficiency (PB = 0.5–45 μg C μg chl-a−1), but no oxygen depletion (average O2 saturation: 109.6%). Nanoplankton dominated phytoplankton biomass (66%) but micro- and nanoplankton performed equivalent primary production rates (47% each). Production-biomass models indicate an export of the exceeding microplankton biomass during most of the year, possibly through grazing. The intense and constant nutrient and organic matter loading at Recife harbor is thus supporting the high microplankton productivity that is not accumulating on the system nor contributing to oxygen depletion, but supporting the whole system’s trophic web.

The Tropical Mockingbird Mimus gilvus (Vieillot, 1808) is a widespread species in the Neotropics, but its southernmost populations in Brazil are ecologically (and possibly taxonomically) distinct, occurring only along the coast in restinga vegetation. Once considered the most common bird in restinga, it is becoming increasingly rare, likely due to habitat loss and illegal capture of nestlings. We conducted field surveys to provide an up-to-date distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird in the southernmost portion of the species’ range, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, supplying an estimate of its current regional population size and conservation status. We surveyed 21 restinga remnants in Rio de Janeiro, covering all major restinga areas in the state. For sites where the species’ presence was confirmed through transect line surveys, we estimated the local population size. The species was found at only four sites. The mean local population density was 52 individuals per km-2. The estimated current and historical Extent of Occurrence (EOO) were 256 km2 and 653 km2, respectively. Combining the population size and EOO results, we estimated that the population of the state of Rio de Janeiro currently ranges from 2,662 to 13,312 individuals, corresponding to an estimated reduction of 61% to 92% in population size in the last 20 years. The species, therefore, can be considered “Endangered” in the state of Rio de Janeiro. We recommend that a taxonomic study of the southernmost populations is carried out in order to clarify whether they represent a different, likely threatened species. We also recommend that the environmental regulations that protect restingas are used towards the protection of these populations.

This communication is the first report of the occurrence of the order Mormonilloida (Mormonilla phasma) in the tropical Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Female individuals were found in surface waters from the shelf break state of Rio Grande do Norte (Northeastern Brazil) and between depths of 60 and 100 m in the epipelagic layer around the St. Peter and St. Paul Archipelago (equatorial Atlantic). This finding extends the vertical limits for this species.

Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country’s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Because of evidences that climate change impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover change caused by deforestation could affect the river’s hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a large-scale hydrological model for the period from 1970–1990 and analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011–2099. Although results show variability among models, consensus scenarios indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the basin.

O artigo analisa como o tema das mudanças climáticas vem sendo incorporado à agenda pública na região do Seridó Potiguar, estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Tomando como referência empírica cinco municípios dessa região, um deles identificado, inclusive, pelo Ministério do Meio Ambiente (2005) como núcleo de desertificação, o artigo mostra como o tema da mudança climática ainda é marginal no âmbito do Estado e das organizações da sociedade civil. Mesmo concebendo as estratégias de convivência com o semiárido e/ou ações de combate à desertificação como temas correlatos às mudanças climáticas, estes ainda tomam lugar marginal na agenda pública e encontram-se desarticulados das demais ações estatais, a exceção da política de 1 Milhão de Cisternas. Apesar da severidade das condições climáticas, sobretudo com a seca dos últimos quatro anos, considerada uma das piores dos últimos 40 anos, as práticas de enfrentamento dessas condições por parte do Estado ainda são frágeis diante da gravidade e urgência do problema.