Autores:
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson; Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira; Rochelle Schneider; Antonio Gasparrini; Sandra de Souza Hacon

Revista:
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Edição:
2021, 18, 5550.

DOI:
doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115550

---

Autores:
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsona Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirab Letícia Palazzi Perezc Sandra de Souza Hacond

Revista:
Sustainability in Debate

Edição:
v. 11, n.3, p. 331-345, dez/2020

DOI:
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33989

---

Autores:
VALE, MARIANA M.; Arias, Paola A. ; Ortega, Geusep ; Cardoso, Manoel ; Oliveira, Beatriz F. A. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; Scarano, Fabio R. . Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation Options. In: M. C. M. Marques; C. E. V. Grelle. (Org.).

Revista:
The Atlantic Forest. History, Biodiversity, Threats and Opportunities of the Mega-diverse Forest

Edição:
Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2021, v. , p. 253-267.

---

The Atlantic Forest is one of the 36 hotspots for biodiversity conservation worldwide. It is a unique, large biome (more than 3000 km in latitude; 2500 in longitude), marked by high biodiversity, high degree of endemic species and, at the same time, extremely threatened. Approximately 70% of the Brazilian population lives in the area of this biome, which makes the conflict between biodiversity conservation and the sustainability of the human population a relevant issue. This book aims to cover: 1) the historical characterization and geographic variation of the biome; 2) the distribution of the diversity of some relevant taxa; 3) the main threats to biodiversity, and 4) possible opportunities to ensure the biodiversity conservation, and the economic and social sustainability. Also, it is hoped that this book can be useful for those involved in the development of public policies aimed at the conservation of this important global biome.

Autores:
MANES, S. ; Costello, M. J. ; Beckett, H. ; Debnath, A. ; Devenish-Nelson, E. ; Grey, K. ; Jenkins, R. ; Khan, T. M. ; Kiessling, W. ; Krause, C. ; Maharaj, S. S. ; Midgley, G. F. ; Price, J. ; Talukdar, G. ; VALE, M. M

Revista:
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Edição:
Volume 257, May 2021, 109070

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109070Get rights and content

---

Climate change affects life at global scales and across systems but is of special concern in areas that are disproportionately rich in biological diversity and uniqueness. Using a meta-analytical approach, we analysed >8000 risk projections of the projected impact of climate change on 273 areas of exceptional biodiversity, including terrestrial and marine environments. We found that climate change is projected to negatively impact all assessed areas, but endemic species are consistently more adversely impacted. Terrestrial endemics are projected to be 2.7 and 10 times more impacted than non-endemic natives and introduced species respectively, the latter being overall unaffected by climate change. We defined a high risk of extinction as a loss of >80% due to climate change alone. Of endemic species, 34% and 46% in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and 100% and 84% of island and mountain species were projected to face high extinction risk respectively. A doubling of warming is projected to disproportionately increase extinction risks for endemic and non-endemic native species. Thus, reducing extinction risks requires both adaptation responses in biodiversity rich-spots and enhanced climate change mitigation.

Autores:
VALE, M. M.; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ

Revista:
Biodiversity Informatics

Edição:
v. 16, p. 28-38, 2021.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.06.442941

---

Land-use land-cover (LULC) data are important predictors of species occurrence and biodiversity threat. Although there are LULC datasets available for ecologists under current conditions, there is a lack of such data under historical and future climatic conditions. This hinders, for example, projecting niche and distribution models under global change scenarios at different times. The Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) is a global terrestrial dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution that provides LULC data from 850 to 2300 for 12 LULC state classes. The dataset, however, is compressed in a file format (NetCDF) that is incompatible with most ecological analysis and intractable for most ecologists. Here we selected and transformed the LUH2 data in order to make it more useful for ecological studies. We provide LULC for every year from 850 to 2100, with data from 2015 on provided under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). We provide two types of file for each year: separate files with continuous values for each of the 12 LULC state classes, and a single categorical file with all state classes combined. To create the categorical layer, we assigned the state with the highest value in a given pixel among the 12 continuous data. The final dataset provides LULC data for 1251 years that will be of interest for macroecology, ecological niche modeling, global change analysis, and other applications in ecology and conservation. We also provide a description of LUH2 prediction of future LULC change through time.

Autores:
ALEXANDRE F. DINIZ-FILHO, JOSÉ ; SOUZA, KELLY S. ; BINI, LUIS M. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; DOBROVOLSKI, RICARDO ; RODRIGUES, FABRICIO ; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; TERRIBILE, LEVI C. ; RANGEL, THIAGO F. ; BIONE, IGOR ; FREITAS, RONIEL ; MACHADO, IBERÊ F. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ ; LORINI, MARIA L. ; VALE, MARIANA M. ; NAVAS, CARLOS A. ; MACIEL, NATAN M. ; VILLALOBOS, FABRICIO ; OLALLA-TARRAGA, MIGUEL A. ; GOUVEIA, SIDNEY

Revista:
ECOGRAPHY

Edição:
31 January 2019

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04264

---

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population-level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco-evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider’s toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco-evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.

Autores:
BRAZ, ALAN GERHARDT ; Lorini, Maria Lucia ; VALE, MARIANA MONCASSIM

Revista:
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Edição:
11 December 2018

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12872

---

Parapatric distributional patterns can arise from abiotic or biotic factors, or from dispersal barriers. Climate change can potentially affect parapatry by changing species’ potential geographic distribution, and thereby widening or shrinking contact zones. Here, we study the effects of climate change on all six species in the genus Callithrix, a group of small-sized Neotropical primates that is distributed parapatrically in eastern Brazil, allegedly due to biotic interactions.

Autores:
BRANDÃO, F.; SCHONEVELD, G.; PACHECO, P.; VIEIRA, I.; PIRAUX, M.; MOTA, D

Revista:
World Development

Edição:
v. 139, 2021.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105268

---

Due to its controversies, oil palm cultivation has been targeted by regulatory innovations. Among these, transnational efforts—such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and corporate commitments to zero deforestation have been highly influential but often tend to overvalue environmental over socio-economic outcomes. This article discusses to what extent domestic governance models of palm oil producing countries can be better equipped to reconcile domestic demands such as economic development and poverty alleviation, and transnational concerns about forest conservation. We do so by looking into the Brazilian case, where the government intended to drive oil palm expansion in the Amazon through a program launched in 2010 that simultaneously only allowed expansion into already deforested areas and offered companies incentives to engage smallholder farmers in their supply chains. Our findings, drawn from primary research activities and existing literature, indicate that Brazil has managed to avoid deforestation typically associated with oil palm expansion elsewhere. Oil palm establishment involved the conversion of 0.8% and 1.3% of primary forests for corporate and smallholder plantations, respectively. However, the Brazilian government did not manage to optimally enhance smallholder participation in the sector, as significant differences in performance were observed between farmers, ranging from very successful (17%) to highly unsuccessful (12%); and failed to achieve sectoral development and competitiveness targets. While some failings can be attributed to external factors such as context, broader domestic governance frameworks and alignments, and private supply chain initiatives, the program itself did not manage to reconcile social, environmental and economic objectives into a single coherent sectoral governance model. Yet, this case study suggests that domestic governance strategies can enable commodity production in a way that is more coherent with national priorities, at the same time as preventing deforestation and minimizing social risks more effectively

Autores:
BERNAL, N.; RODRIGUES FILHO, Saulo; LITRE, G.

Revista:
Sustentabilidade Em Debate,

Edição:
v.12, 2021.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v12n1.2021.36587

---

Due to the construction of the Itaparica Hydroelectric Plant in 1988, the Tuxás were displaced from their lands and resettled, generating internal conflicts and various socio-environmental impacts. Historically dedicated to agriculture and fishing, the resettlement of Tuxás changed their livelihoods, affecting nutrition and their relationship with their livelihoods. For those who still have access to fishing on the São Francisco River, the availability of fish has been reduced as a result of water polluting eutrophication, due to the disposal of sewage and fertilizers. The results include new elements, often disregarded, to reexplore the socio-environmental trade-offs of the installation of hydroelectric plants in Brazil. He concludes by proposing alternative perspectives (mainly from the bottom up), to rethink the delicate balance between economic progress driven by energy generation in Brazil and also the negative impact on the livelihood of the country’s most vulnerable communities.

Autores:
ALVES DA SILVA ROSA, L.; MORAIS, M. ; SAITO, C. H

Revista:
Water

Edição:
v. 13, p. 907, 2021.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070907

---

Autores:
PINHO, P.; ANJOS, L.; Rodrigues-Filho, S.; SANTOS, D.; TOLEDO, P.

Revista:
SUSTENTABILIDADE EM DEBATE

Edição:
v.11, p.242 - 259, 2020.

DOI:
10.18472/sustdeb.v11n3.2020.33918

---

As mudanças climáticas são consideradas globalmente um dos principais vetores de transformações socioambientais, sobretudo em biomas, ecossistemas e populações mais vulneráveis. Nesse contexto, o conceito de resiliência tem sido frequentemente empregado, sendo utilizado na ecologia para entender os limiares de transição ecossistêmicos pelo qual florestas e outros habitats conseguem se estruturar diante das diversas perturbações externas. No entanto, o conceito de resiliência ante os impactos e riscos das mudanças climáticas pelas lentes de riscos socioambientais no Brasil ainda é pouco desenvolvido, sobretudo na escala de biomas. Neste artigo, utilizamos a teoria das transições críticas à modelagem de distribuição de nicho ecológico em cenários futuros de aquecimento global até o final do século, a fim de evidenciar a alteração da resiliência ecológica dos biomas da Amazônia, Caatinga, Cerrado, Mata Atlântica e Pampa, e de que forma as alterações na resiliência podem levar a um aumento da exposição, vulnerabilidades e riscos à segurança socioambiental. O artigo mostra como a abordagem interdisciplinar na modelagem de resiliência dos biomas pode ser um instrumento auxiliar para tomada de decisões no âmbito das políticas públicas de mitigação e adaptação às mudanças climáticas e redução de riscos à segurança socioambiental.

Autores:
CAVALCANTE, LOUISE; MESQUITA, PATRÍCIA S.; Rodrigues-Filho, Saulo

Revista:
DESENVOLVIMENTO E MEIO AMBIENTE

Edição:
v.55, p.433 - 450, 2020.

DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/dma.v55i0.73389

---