O cinema tem uma relação indissociável com a vida das pessoas, na medida em que reflete e está integrado à vida, não apenas de atores e atrizes ou dos agentes produtores do cinema, mas também no dia-a-dia das pessoas comuns que tem no cinema uma das melhores alternativas de lazer e de vivência da experiência ficcional. Basta ver os números da indústria da exibição cinematográfica para se ter segurança de o quanto o cinema atrai as pessoas. Em outras palavras, nós vivemos com o cinema, que reflete e retrata nossa vida e ora nos faz pensar sobre o universo que nos envolve, ora nos alerta para o que devemos fazer, ou deixar de fazer, e ora simplesmente nos ocupa o tempo, de uma forma prazerosa e emocionante. E se é assim, não é difícil compreender o uso potencial do cinema na transmissão de mensagens, pontos de vista e de ideologias, e sua capacidade de ilustrar e construir a realidade humana e social enquanto propulsor de uma reflexão sobre o real. Ao longo do livro encaminhamos um esforço de análise de obras cinematográficas, focadas em filmes específicos e com uma atenção dirigida à análise organizacional, com ênfase gerencial para um contexto educacional e de formação gerencial.

Study region
The Tapajós Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected by human activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as others within the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, among them the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015.

Study focus
Hydrological impacts due to climate change affect human activities, such as hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for better planning of water management. In this study, we assess climate change impacts by applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model using several climate models projections as inputs. The impact assessment consisted of statistical shifts of precipitation and discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plant was assessed through the development of annual power duration curves for each projection, also considering its design and structural limitations.

New hydrological insights for the region
The high inter-model variability in the climate projections drives a high variability in the projected hydrological impacts. Results indicate an increase of basin’s sensitivity to climate change and vulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the identification of a singular optimal solution for impacts assessment. However, exploratory analysis of the plant design robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in the energy production even under projections of increased discharge, due to plant capacity limitations. This is valuable information for stakeholders to decide about energy production strategies.

This study investigates the applicability of error corrections to satellite-based precipitation products in streamflow simulations. A three-year time series (2008–2011) is considered across 19 sub-basins of the Tocantins–Araguaia basin (764,000 km2), located in the center-north region of Brazil. A raingauge network (24 h accumulation) of approximately 300 collection points (∼1 gauge every 2500 km2) is used as reference for evaluating the following four satellite rainfall products: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission real-time 3B42 product (3B42RT), the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and the NOAA Hydroestimator (HYDRO-E). Ensemble streamflow simulations, for both dry and rainy seasons, are obtained by forcing the Distributed Hydrological Model developed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD–INPE) with the satellite rainfall products, corrected using a two-dimensional stochastic satellite rainfall error model (SREM2D). The ensemble simulations are evaluated using streamflow output derived by forcing the model with reference rainfall gauge data. SREM2D is able to correct for errors in the satellite precipitation data by pushing the modeled streamflow ensemble closer to the reference river discharge, when compared to the simulations forced with uncorrected rainfall input. Ensemble streamflow error statistics (MAE and RMSE) show a decreasing trend as a function of the catchment area for all satellite products, but the rainfall-to-streamflow error propagation does not show any dependence on the basin size.

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom’s framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom’s framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil’s new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom’s principle “Clearly defined boundaries” showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought’s impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

The Tocantins River, located at the northern region of Brazil with over 300 000 km2 of drainage area, is an important water body in terms of hydropower production. The occurrence of floods along the Tocantins River is a relatively frequent event that affects hydropower plant operations and several cities and their inhabitants. Motivated by recent flooding issues, a hydrological forecasting system was developed in order to assist the decision making of dam operation for flood control. The model uses merged rainfall information from ground-based telemetric gauges and real-time TRMM satellite rainfall estimates. Streamflow forecasts are obtained based on quantitative precipitation forecasts from two different sources, CPTEC Eta 15 km regional deterministic model and the Global Ensemble Forecasting System-VII, maintained by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We present here the forecasting system analysis of the 2011/2012 rainy season flood predictions with the use of ensemble forecasts, and comparison results of deterministic and ensemble forecasts for the major flood of 2012/2013.

The atmospheric teleconnections associated with the Eastern Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki events onto the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated. The Eastern Pacific El Niños drive significant warming of the tropical North Atlantic basin during boreal spring after its peak via the atmospheric bridge and tropospheric temperature mechanisms. However, the tropical Atlantic does not show a robust response to El Niño Modoki events. Here our results suggest that the preconditioning of the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal winter plays an important role in the following season, not only during Eastern Pacific El Niños but also during El Niño Modoki events. Additionally, we examine three other factors that could explain potential differences in the tropical Atlantic teleconnections from El Niño Modoki and Eastern Pacific El Niño events: (1) The distant location of the maximum SST warming in the Pacific; (2) The weak warming associated with this pattern; and (3) The SST pattern including a cooling in the eastern Pacific. Using numerical experiments forced with idealised SST in the equatorial Pacific, we show that the location of the El Niño Modoki SST warming during its mature phase could be favourable for exciting atmospheric teleconnections in boreal winter but not in the following spring season due to the seasonal shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that modulates deep convection over the anomalous SST. This demonstrates the importance of the mean seasonal atmospheric circulation in modulating the remote teleconnections from the central-western Pacific warming in the model. However, it is suggested here that the cooling in the eastern Pacific associated with El Niño Modoki counteracts the atmospheric response driven by the central western Pacific warming, generating a consequent weaker connection to the tropical Atlantic compared to the stronger link during Eastern Pacific El Niño events. Finally we show that the modeled Pacific–tropical Atlantic teleconnections to an eastern Pacific warming depends strongly on the underlying seasonal cycle of SST.

Reflete sobre a questão da imagem na ciência, pensando em como práticas visuais participam da construção de saberes e territórios. A crescente centralidade do visual em práticas científicas contemporâneas evidencia a necessidade de reflexão para além da imagem. O objeto da discussão se constituirá de imagens científicas usadas no monitoramento e na visualização do território. O artigo trata das relações entre a visualidade e os pesquisadores que a constroem; as infraestruturas dessa construção; e as instituições e políticas de monitoramento do território. Argumenta-se que tais imagens-relações, mais que visualizar, ajudam a constituir o território de formas específicas. Explorar esse processo possibilita uma compreensão mais complexa das formas pelas quais a ciência e a tecnologia ajudam a construir realidades.

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affects regional climate through modifications in the water balance and energy budget. These impacts are frequently expressed by: changes in the amount and frequency of precipitation and alteration of surface temperatures. In South America, most of the studies of the effects of LUCC on the local and regional climate have focused on the Amazon region (54 studies), whereas LUCC within non-Amazonian regions have been largely undermined regardless their potential importance in regulating the regional climate (19 studies). We estimated that 3.6 million km2 of the original natural vegetation cover in non-Amazonian South America were converted into other types of land use, which is about 4 times greater than the historical Amazon deforestation. Moreover, there is evidence showing that LUCC within such fairly neglected ecosystems cause significant reductions in precipitation and increases in surface temperatures, with occasional impacts affecting neighboring or remote areas. We explore the implications of these findings in the context of water security, climatic extremes and future research priorities.

The use of Urban Solid Waste (USW) as sources of energy has acquired rising importance in current discussions of alternative energy supplies, in particular in Brazil. This paper brings to these discussions an examination of the concept of solid wastes, including their historic origins and formation, taking their social, economic and cultural characteristics into account, including point view of waste production liturgy. Consequently, a spendthrift society slanted towards the decreasing marginal utility of assets must make efficient use of its USW in order to reduce excessive output. Besides that, this document presents the Brazilian potential of urban solid waste to produce electric power.

A REGIÃO Metropolitana de São Paulo tem passado por uma séria crise hídrica. A ameaça de racionamento despertou o interesse da sociedade em compreender como se chegou a essa situação e, principalmente, quais são as possíveis soluções para superar esse problema. Entre os diversos fatores que levaram à crise hídrica, este artigo analisa a perda da cobertura vegetal do entorno da região da Cantareira e sugere uma estratégia de médio prazo para a revegetação destas áreas e para a reativação das nascentes ali localizadas.

The aim of this study is to characterize rainfall patterns in a vast transition zone between the Amazon and the Cerrado Biomes. The analysis is focused on annual and seasonal tendencies, mainly about the onset and offset of the rainy season, its length and shifts. More than 200 Rain Gauges (RGs) were analyzed in the study area using Pettitt’s and Mann-Kendall’s non-parametric tests allied to a Linear Regression Analysis over the period 1971–2010. The onset and offset dates of the rainy season and its duration are also identified for 89 RGs. Pettitt’s test indicates ruptures in 16 % of the rainfall time series while Mann-Kendall’s monthly test indicates that 45 % of the RGs had negative trends, mainly in the transition seasons (spring and austral autumn). Linear Regression Analysis indicates negative trends in 63 % of the time series concomitant to the rainy season onset and offset analysis, which confirmes a delay for the onset of the rainy season in 76 % of the RGs and a premature demise for 84 % of the RGs. Identification of the tendencies for rainy season duration indicates that the rainy season has become shorter at 88 % of the RGs. There were recurring patterns in the results displaying drier conditions in RGs localized in deforested areas opposed to forested locations.