Doenças transmitidas por vetores no Brasil: mudanças climáticas e cenários futuros de aquecimento global
Bruno Moreira de Carvalhoa Letícia Palazzi Perezb Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirac Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsond Marco Aurélio Hortae Andréa Sobralf Sandra de Souza Hacong
Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate
v. 11, n.3, p. 383-404, dez/2020
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33985
RESUMO
As mudanças climáticas afetam a saúde humana direta ou indiretamente, e seus impactos são complexos, não lineares e dependentes de diversas variáveis. Entre os diversos impactos das mudanças climáticas na saúde estão a alteração na distribuição espacial de doenças transmitidas por vetores. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo apresenta e discute mudanças na distribuição espacial da adequabilidade climática para leishmaniose visceral, febre amarela e malária no Brasil, em diferentes cenários de aquecimento global. Para a construção dos modelos de adequabilidade climática nos cenários de aquecimento, foi utilizado o algoritmo de máxima entropia (MaxEnt). Os modelos foram baseados em variáveis climáticas geradas pelo modelo climático regionalizado Eta-HadGEM2 ES, no período baseline (1965- 2005) e no cenário RCP 8.5, representando os níveis de aquecimento global de 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) e 4,0oC (2071-2099). As três doenças estudadas são amplamente influenciadas pelo clima e apresentaram diferentes padrões de distribuição no País. Em cenários de aquecimento global, a leishmaniose visceral apresentou condições climáticas mais favoráveis à sua ocorrência nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil, enquanto o clima nas regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste se tornou gradativamente mais adequado para febre amarela. Nos cenários para malária foi observado aumento nas condições climáticas favoráveis à sua alta incidência na Mata Atlântica, onde atualmente ocorrem casos extra- amazônicos. Os cenários aqui apresentados representam diferentes consequências possíveis para o setor de saúde e da adoção ou não de diferentes medidas para mitigar as mudanças climáticas no Brasil, como a redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa.
ABSTRACT
Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) and 4,0oC (2071- 2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature
BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA1, ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA2, RENATO C. FEITOSA1, MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA3, WASHINGTON L. JUNGER2 and SANDRA HACON1
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências
Acad. Bras. Ciênc. 91 (03) • 2019
10.1590/0001-3765201920180748
Abstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGt values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. the WBGt was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). Results: the projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGt that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGt above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. Conclusions: these results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises.
Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson; Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira; Rochelle Schneider; Antonio Gasparrini; Sandra de Souza Hacon
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
2021, 18, 5550.
doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115550
Abstract: Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure variable was the daily mean temperature from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis. The association was estimated from a two-stage time series analysis method. We also calculated deaths attributable to heat and cold. The pooled exposure–response curve presented a J-shaped format. The exposure to extreme heat increased the risk of mortality by 27% (95% CI: 15–39%), while the exposure to extreme cold increased the risk of mortality by 16% (95% CI: 8–24%). The heterogeneity between cities was explained by city-specific mean temperature and temperature range. The fractions of deaths attributable to cold and heat were 4.7% (95% CI: 2.94–6.17%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.45–3.95%), respectively. Our results show a significant impact of non-optimal temperature on the respiratory health of elderlies living in Brazil. It may support proactive action implementation in cities that have critical temperature variations.
Impacto do aquecimento global nos anos potenciais de vida perdidos por doenças cardiorrespiratórias em capitais brasileiras
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsona Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirab Letícia Palazzi Perezc Sandra de Souza Hacond
Sustainability in Debate
v. 11, n.3, p. 331-345, dez/2020
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33989
RESUMO
Este estudo tem o objetivo de avaliar o impacto futuro do aquecimento global nos Anos Potenciais de Vidas Perdidos (YLL) para as doenças cardiovasculares em adultos (≥ 45 anos) e respiratória em idosos (≥ 60 anos). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, que inclui todas as capitais do Brasil. Nas projeções futuras, foram usados os dados de temperatura do Modelo Regional Eta-HadGEM2S para o cenário RCP 8.5. Foram estimadas as frações de YLL atribuíveis à temperatura para os níveis de aquecimento 1,5°C, 2,0°C e 4,0°C. Em números absolutos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo apresentaram a maior contribuição de YLL atribuível ao aquecimento global. Campo Grande e Cuiabá foram as capitais mais impactadas pelo aquecimento global de 1,5oC comparado ao período baseline (1961-2005) para os dois desfechos avaliados. Os resultados desta pesquisa sugerem que o impacto da exposição à temperatura sobre o YLL tende a crescer conforme aumenta o nível de aquecimento global.
ABSTRACT
This study aims at assessing the future impact of global warming in the Potencial Years of Life Lost (YLL) for cardiovascular diseases in adults (≥45 years) and respiratory diseases in the elderly (≥60 years). This is an ecological study, which includes all the capitals of Brazil. Future projections used temperature data sourced from the Eta-HadGEM2S Regional Model for the RCP8.5 scenario. YLL fractions attributable to temperature were estimated for global warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 4.0°C. The results showed that, in absolute numbers, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have presented the largest YLL contribution attributable to global warming among the capital cities. Campo Grande and Cuiabá were the most impacted capitals by a global warming of 1.5oC compared to the baseline period (1961-2005), both for respiratory diseases in the elderly and for cardiovascular diseases in adults. Results of this research suggest that the impact of exposure to temperature on YLL tends to increase as the level of global warming increases.
Aerosols from biomass burning and respiratory diseases in children, Manaus, Northern Brazil
ANDRADE FILHO, V. S.; ARTAXO, P.; HACON, S. S.; CARMO, CLEBER NASCIMENTO DO; CIRINO, GLAUBER.
Revista de Saúde Pública (Impresso), v. 47, p. 239-247, 2013.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-8910.2013047004011
adverse effects, Air Pollution, Amazonian Ecosystem, Child, epidemiology, Particulate Matter, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Wildfire,
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the effects of fine particulate matter emitted through biomass burning on hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in children living in Manaus, Northern Brazil.
METHODS
Descriptive study with ecologic time series design carried out in Manaus from 2002 to 2009. Hospital admission data were obtained from the Unified Health System database. PM2.5 levels were estimated using aerosol remote sensing through the measurement of aerosol optical depth at a wavelength of 550 nm. Statistical methods were used in the data analysis, with Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression between variables, with a 95% confidence interval.
RESULTS
The region of Manaus showed low PM2.5 concentrations when compared to the Southern Amazonian region. Between August and November (dry period in the region), was when the highest mean levels of PM2.5, estimated between 18 to 23 µg/m3, and the largest number of fires were observed. For the rainy season, an average of 12 µg/m3, 66% lower than the dry season measurements (20.6 µg/m3) was observed. The highest rates of hospitalization were observed during the rainy season and April was the month with the highest levels at 2.51/1,000 children. A positive association between hospital admissions and relative humidity (R = 0.126; p-value = 0.005) was observed, while the association between admissions and PM2.5 was negative and statistically significant (R = -0.168; p-value = 0.003). The R 2 of the final model (Hospitalizations = 2.19*Humidity – 1.60*PM2.5 – 0.23*Precipitation) explained 84% of hospitalizations due to respiratory disease in children living in Manaus, considering the independent variables statistically significant (humidity, PM2.5, and precipitation).
CONCLUSIONS
Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in children in Manaus, were more related to weather conditions and in particular relative humidity, than to exposure to aerosols emitted by biomass burning in the Amazonian region.