Pesquisas e documentos nacionais e internacionais destacam a preocupação com o ensino em Conservação da Biodiversidade e com o cenário de elevada extinção de espécies. Considerando a perspectiva dialógico-problematizadora do material didático PROBIO Educação Ambiental (PROBIO-EA), este constitui-se um potencial complemento à sala de aula, baseada em livros didáticos incompletos. Este trabalho propôs-se a fazer a avaliação da contribuição do PROBIO-EA para a aprendizagem do conceito central Extinção de espécies, usando conceitos relacionados presentes no material. A avaliação foi desenvolvida em salas de aula de 6ª série/7º ano de duas escolas da rede pública de Brasília. Mapas conceituais (MC) foram elaborados em momentos pré e pós-teste, e entre eles, utilizou-se o PROBIO-EA. Os MC foram contrastados com mapas elaborados por experts. Os resultados mostram que os alunos constroem MC mais semelhantes aos dos experts e passam a construir mais relações corretas e acerca do conceito central de Extinção de espécies.

The south-eastern Amazon rainforest is subject to ongoing deforestation and is expected to become drier due to climate change. Recent analyses of the distribution of tree cover in the tropics show three modes that have been interpreted as representing alternative stable states: forest, savanna and treeless states. This situation implies that a change in environmental conditions, such as in the climate, could cause critical transitions from a forest towards a savanna ecosystem. Shifts to savanna might also occur if perturbations such as deforestation exceed a critical threshold. Recovering the forest would be difficult as the savanna will be stabilized by a feedback between tree cover and fire. Here we explore how environmental changes and perturbations affect the forest by using a simple model with alternative tree-cover states. We focus on the synergistic effects of precipitation reduction and deforestation on the probability of regime shifts in the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. The analysis indicated that in a large part of the south-eastern Amazon basin rainforest and savanna could be two alternative states, although massive forest dieback caused by mean-precipitation reduction alone is unlikely. However, combinations of deforestation and climate change triggered up to 6.6 times as many local regime shifts than the two did separately, causing large permanent forest losses in the studied region. The results emphasize the importance of reducing deforestation rates in order to prevent a climate-induced dieback of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest.

Ongoing climate change and the human role as dominant cause behind it are undeniable and already affecting living systems around the globe. Nonetheless, the likely consequences of climate change to Neotropical biodiversity are still poorly understood. We used species distribution modeling to evaluate the likely effects of climate change to the seven species of wild cats that are endemic to the Neotropics. We gathered (and provide) 424 species occurrence records from museum collections and the literature. We run the analysis on the ModEco software, using four modeling algorithms and projected models into 2050 using data from International Panel on Climate Change’s last Assessment Report, under a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP 8.5), according to five Global Circulation Models. We used an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach a consensus scenario, including only models with AUC > 0.70 for the present climate dataset. We created ensembles using the majority rule. After this procedure, we ended with two final suitability models per species, one for the present and another for the future. Model performance varied among species and was related to species’ climatic suitability area (the smaller the area, the greater the model performance), and species with the smaller ranges were predicted to lose the highest percentage of their current distribution under climate change. The projections under climate change points to important contraction of climatically suitable areas for all Neotropical felids except for L. geoffoyii. The remaining species show, in average, a 43.5% contraction of suitable areas, with L. jacobitus and L. guigna showing more than 50% contraction. Both are already threatened under IUCN and Leopardus jacobitus, found only in the higher elevations of the Andes, is of special concern because highland species are particularly susceptible to a warming climate.

The quantification of species-environment relationship represents the core of predictive geographical modeling in ecology and the root of contemporary species distribution modeling. The correlative approaches that link known occurrences of species with environmental variation across landscapes to estimate ecological niches and geographic distributions are generally termed ecological niche modeling (ENM) or species distribution modeling (SDM). The theoretical basis of these models is that each organism is adapted to specific tolerance zones or ‘‘niches’’ which, in a Grinellian sense, can be considered as the set of abiotic requirements in which a species can maintain itself. Here we provided an overview of the publication trends on ENM/SDM, both globally and in Brazil, through a scientometric approach. We also review the most important contributions of Dr. Rui Cerqueira’s pioneer scientific research program on biogeography and distribution modeling in Brazil. The global production in the “ENM/SDM” field showed a growing trend in publication from 1990s on, with peaks on global production output occurring five times from 2005 to 2012. After 2009, more than a hundred articles were published yearly. In Brazil, although the production has also increased in the last decade, especially from 2006 on, the increase did not follow the magnitude of the global trend. Only after 2009 the number of articles published yearly surpassed ten. Cerqueira figures among the top ten authors in Brazil, being the only author to publish on the topic before 2002. Cerqueira has also made few, but quite important contributions to the understanding of biogeographical patterns in the Neotropics. These results highlight the pioneer contribution of Dr. Rui Cerqueira to the fields of species distribution modeling and biogeography in Brazil, which we present and discuss here.

As we confront the current environmental crisis, determining the biophysical base (e.g., materials, energy, land, and water) of nations has become paramount. With advanced economies benefiting from the import of resource-intensive primary goods originating from poorer parts of the world, especially emerging nations, these are dilapidating their natural capital. Brazil is one of such emerging economies, whose mining and farming activities, propping up its export-led economic growth, exert great pressure on the environment. In particular, farming has been shown to have one of the world’s greatest environmental impacts, especially as a consequence of land use associated with cattle ranching. Since a nation-wide evaluation of land-use types across the whole sectorial spectrum of the country’s economy is still lacking, we used the most recently available Input–Output Economic Model for Brazil and the Ecological Footprint method to identify those economic sectors with the greatest potential for appropriating portions of the natural world.

Our results show that: (i) the biggest chunk of Brazil’s Ecological Footprint is due to its Carbon Footprint and, in particular, emissions from cattle; (ii) only a few economic sectors exhibit high Ecological Footprint values, chiefly those belonging to livestock farming and energy production based on fossil fuels; (iii) excluding the soybeans and slaughter sectors, export-oriented sectors have below-average Ecological Footprint values; and (iv) the percentage of Brazil’s Ecological Footprint due to household consumption (excluding imports) is three times bigger than that attributable to exports, with sectors belonging to livestock farming contributing the most to such disparity.

These results underscore that the environmental impact of the Brazilian economy can be drastically reduced by tackling the emission-intensive production processes of a few sectors only and disincentivizing the domestic consumption of a narrow range of products, especially with respect to the livestock segment

While a number of papers have shown that subway systems have an impact on the air quality through the release of particulate matters, no information about the impact of such particles on tree attributes is available. Tree leaves from three different species from the exit side of a subway station in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were more asymmetrical than leaves from the entrance side. This leaves also presenting changes in leaves cuticle and chlorophyll content.

Study region
The Tapajós Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected by human activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as others within the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, among them the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015.

Study focus
Hydrological impacts due to climate change affect human activities, such as hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for better planning of water management. In this study, we assess climate change impacts by applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model using several climate models projections as inputs. The impact assessment consisted of statistical shifts of precipitation and discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plant was assessed through the development of annual power duration curves for each projection, also considering its design and structural limitations.

New hydrological insights for the region
The high inter-model variability in the climate projections drives a high variability in the projected hydrological impacts. Results indicate an increase of basin’s sensitivity to climate change and vulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the identification of a singular optimal solution for impacts assessment. However, exploratory analysis of the plant design robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in the energy production even under projections of increased discharge, due to plant capacity limitations. This is valuable information for stakeholders to decide about energy production strategies.

This study investigates the applicability of error corrections to satellite-based precipitation products in streamflow simulations. A three-year time series (2008–2011) is considered across 19 sub-basins of the Tocantins–Araguaia basin (764,000 km2), located in the center-north region of Brazil. A raingauge network (24 h accumulation) of approximately 300 collection points (∼1 gauge every 2500 km2) is used as reference for evaluating the following four satellite rainfall products: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission real-time 3B42 product (3B42RT), the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and the NOAA Hydroestimator (HYDRO-E). Ensemble streamflow simulations, for both dry and rainy seasons, are obtained by forcing the Distributed Hydrological Model developed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD–INPE) with the satellite rainfall products, corrected using a two-dimensional stochastic satellite rainfall error model (SREM2D). The ensemble simulations are evaluated using streamflow output derived by forcing the model with reference rainfall gauge data. SREM2D is able to correct for errors in the satellite precipitation data by pushing the modeled streamflow ensemble closer to the reference river discharge, when compared to the simulations forced with uncorrected rainfall input. Ensemble streamflow error statistics (MAE and RMSE) show a decreasing trend as a function of the catchment area for all satellite products, but the rainfall-to-streamflow error propagation does not show any dependence on the basin size.

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom’s framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom’s framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil’s new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom’s principle “Clearly defined boundaries” showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought’s impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

The Tocantins River, located at the northern region of Brazil with over 300 000 km2 of drainage area, is an important water body in terms of hydropower production. The occurrence of floods along the Tocantins River is a relatively frequent event that affects hydropower plant operations and several cities and their inhabitants. Motivated by recent flooding issues, a hydrological forecasting system was developed in order to assist the decision making of dam operation for flood control. The model uses merged rainfall information from ground-based telemetric gauges and real-time TRMM satellite rainfall estimates. Streamflow forecasts are obtained based on quantitative precipitation forecasts from two different sources, CPTEC Eta 15 km regional deterministic model and the Global Ensemble Forecasting System-VII, maintained by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We present here the forecasting system analysis of the 2011/2012 rainy season flood predictions with the use of ensemble forecasts, and comparison results of deterministic and ensemble forecasts for the major flood of 2012/2013.

The atmospheric teleconnections associated with the Eastern Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki events onto the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated. The Eastern Pacific El Niños drive significant warming of the tropical North Atlantic basin during boreal spring after its peak via the atmospheric bridge and tropospheric temperature mechanisms. However, the tropical Atlantic does not show a robust response to El Niño Modoki events. Here our results suggest that the preconditioning of the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal winter plays an important role in the following season, not only during Eastern Pacific El Niños but also during El Niño Modoki events. Additionally, we examine three other factors that could explain potential differences in the tropical Atlantic teleconnections from El Niño Modoki and Eastern Pacific El Niño events: (1) The distant location of the maximum SST warming in the Pacific; (2) The weak warming associated with this pattern; and (3) The SST pattern including a cooling in the eastern Pacific. Using numerical experiments forced with idealised SST in the equatorial Pacific, we show that the location of the El Niño Modoki SST warming during its mature phase could be favourable for exciting atmospheric teleconnections in boreal winter but not in the following spring season due to the seasonal shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that modulates deep convection over the anomalous SST. This demonstrates the importance of the mean seasonal atmospheric circulation in modulating the remote teleconnections from the central-western Pacific warming in the model. However, it is suggested here that the cooling in the eastern Pacific associated with El Niño Modoki counteracts the atmospheric response driven by the central western Pacific warming, generating a consequent weaker connection to the tropical Atlantic compared to the stronger link during Eastern Pacific El Niño events. Finally we show that the modeled Pacific–tropical Atlantic teleconnections to an eastern Pacific warming depends strongly on the underlying seasonal cycle of SST.