This paper proposes an indirect method to elicit experts’ opinions. The approach is an attempt to balance accuracy and time consumption (efficiency) in elicitation exercises. Each step of the proposed method involves two types of questions: first, the expert is asked about which of two subintervals most likely holds the unknown of interest (a procedure similar to the binary search algorithm); then, the expert assigns a credibility level on which he bases his decision. A set of Bayesian intervals of the unknown is thereby obtained, and the probability distribution underlying expert’s beliefs is approached. The usefulness of the method is analysed by means of: 1) a comparison with established methods from the literature (e.g., the direct and bisection methods); 2) its application to a real world case within the context of probabilistic risk analysis.

This study investigates long-term climate trends in Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil (Nordeste), and in the Tropical Atlantic islands of Fernando de Noronha and Cape Verde. The study is based on meteorological station time series and model simulations of present and future climates. Past trends are compared with numerical simulations of present and future climate scenarios for the periods of 1960-2000 and 2010-2050. Both the station data analyses and numerical simulations revealed trends of increasing temperature maxima and diminishing precipitation. While station data analyses showed modest warming in Fernando de Noronha they revealed strong warming and drying trends in Cape Verde similar to the trends detected over the semiarid Nordeste. The water-balance calculations for the study sites showed reduced soil moisture availability and total rainfall in all areas. The observed temperature and precipitation trends are indicative that aridification processes are underway in Pernambuco and Cape Verde. The atmospheric model simulations were consistent with the station data regarding the present warming; the climate change scenarios for 2010-2050 indicated a faster increase of daily temperature maxima over Nordeste compared to that simulated for the recent past

In this paper, soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and stocks were investigated in agricultural and natural areas in 17 plot-level paired sites and in a regional survey encompassing more than 100 pasture soils In the paired sites, elemental soil concentrations and stocks were determined in native vegetation (forests and savannas), pastures and crop-livestock systems (CPSs). Nutrient stocks were calculated for the soil depth intervals 0-10, 0-30, and 0-60 cm for the paired sites and 0-10, and 0-30 cm for the pasture regional survey by sum stocks obtained in each sampling intervals (0-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-60 cm). Overall, there were significant differences in soil element concentrations and ratios between different land uses, especially in the surface soil layers. Carbon and nitrogen contents were lower, while phosphorus contents were higher in the pasture and CPS soils than in native vegetation soils. Additionally, soil stoichiometry has changed with changes in land use. The soil C :N ratio was lower in the native vegetation than in the pasture and CPS soils, and the carbon and nitrogen to available phosphorus ratio (PME/ decreased from the native vegetation to the pasture to the CPS soils. In the plotlevel paired sites, the soil nitrogen stocks were lower in all depth intervals in pasture and in the CPS soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. On the other hand, the soil phosphorus stocks were higher in all depth intervals in agricultural soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. For the regional pasture survey, soil nitrogen and phosphorus stocks were lower in all soil intervals in pasture soils than in native vegetation soils. The nitrogen loss with cultivation observed here is in line with other studies and it seems to be a combination of decreasing organic matter inputs, in cases where crops replaced native forests, with an increase in soil organic matter decomposition that leads to a decrease in the long run. The main cause of the increase in soil phosphorus stocks in the CPS and pastures of the plot-level paired site seems to be linked to phosphorus fertilization by mineral and organics fertilizers. The findings of this paper illustrate that land-use changes that are currently common in Brazil alter soil concentrations, stocks and elemental ratios of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. These changes could have an impact on the subsequent vegetation, decreasing soil carbon and increasing nitrogen limitation but alleviating soil phosphorus deficiency.

O PAIS é uma tecnologia social criada para desenvolver a agricultura familiar por meio de padrões agroecológicos, integrando em um mesmo sistema a criação de animais e produção de hortaliças, frutas, cereais e adubação por compostagem. Agricultores em diversas regiões do país têm recebido unidades do PAIS através da iniciativa do SEBRAE, Fundação Banco do Brasil e o Ministério da Integração Nacional. Apesar da propagação desta tecnologia há uma grande disparidade em relação ao desempenho desse sistema entre as unidades implantadas. O presente artigo faz uma análise dos principais fatores que contribuem para o desenvolvimento da tecnologia social PAIS, tendo por base, estudos realizados em 24 unidades no município de Macaíba, região metropolitana de Natal, RN, distribuídas em quatro comunidades Através do método comparativo foi possível observar que duas comunidades houve desistência da produção pelo PAIS e em outras duas há uma produção crescente de alimentos através desse sistema. Os resultados demonstram que, os fatores que mais influenciaram na desistência ou permanência dos agricultores na produção com o PAIS foram aspectos relacionadas ao nível de organização comunitária, pois as comunidades onde os agricultores tinham uma maior entrosamento social foram as que conseguiram continuar com a manutenção das unidades do PAIS, por outro lado, nas comunidades onde houveram desistências foi notado um menor grau de coesão social entre eles.

Criado em 2005, o Agroamigo adota metodologia diferenciada para alcançar e oferecer tratamento adequado a agricultores familiares pobres da área de atuação do BNB, visando suprir as dificuldades observadas no Pronaf B. Em 2012, o Agroamigo expandiu seu público-alvo para além do Pronaf B. Em função disso, este artigo verifica se, a despeito de tal expansão, o programa continua privilegiando aquele público inicial. Analisam-se dados de um cadastro socioeconômico levantados por assessores de microcrédito do Programa, durante visitas prévias ao financiamento, com recorte temporal para o período de sua expansão, 2012-2014. Confrontam-se tais informações com dados sobre público-alvo do Pronaf b. Verificou-se precariedade no acesso à infraestrutura de produção, mas avanços em relação à participação feminina e à bancarização. A produção concentra-se na atividade pecuária, comercializam-se os produtos preferencialmente nos mercados locais, de forma individual, diretamente para os consumidores e a renda media total obtida não ultrapassa R$ 20 mil anuais. Conclui-se que, apesar da ampliação para outros públicos, o Agroamigo segue priorizando o agricultor enquadrado no Pronaf B, com a ressalva de que a base de clientes ampliada cobre apenas três anos de operacionalização, requerendo uma avaliação futura para confirmação.

The use of the extraordinary hydroelectric potential of the Amazon Basin originated an increase in the offer of renewable energy in Brazil, which, in its turn, leads to conflicts and a lack of consensus among different players owing to the potential negative impacts related to the construction and operation of large hydroelectric power plants in relatively well preserved areas. In this context, environmental licensing is one of the national environmental policy’s main instruments for making decisions regarding the use of the hydroelectric potential, especially the rivers of the Amazon Basin. Nevertheless, this significant instrument has its limitations and requires adjustments in order to better aid the decision making process regarding the use of water resources and land with the goal of increasing the offer of electric energy.

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used.

The goal of this paper is to analyze the relation between anthropology and education, and the relation of both with the experience of life, in a context of debates in which epistemological concerns have gradually been substituted by a reflection on the ontological dimension of existence. Starting with a discussion on the asymmetric historical relation between anthropology and education, in what concerns the analysis of sociocultural dimensions of learning, we propose the inversion of terms of the expression anthropology of education, and then discuss the paradoxes that characterize the relation between the professional education of the anthropologist, identified as an epistemological exercise, and the ontological dimension of the ethnographic experience. From this discussion, the question of the body of the ethnographer emerges as something absent in mainstream ethnographic production, which is identified as an index of the presence of one of the structuring dichotomies of Western epistemology: the separation of mind and body. The works of authors associated to the so-called ontological turn in social sciences are brought to the discussion, and from the analysis of some of their main contributions, new points of contact between education and anthropology, on more symmetric grounds, emerge. From these, it is of special interest the one that focuses on happiness and the plenitude of becomings, which, albeit an unprecedented theme in anthropology, has been part of the pedagogical debates of the last four decades.

Feed intake and average daily gain (ADG) in Nellore cattle were determined to calculate residual feed intake in two performance tests: first during the growth phase (RFI_growth) and then during a measurement of the methane emission phase (RFI_met). During the RFI_growth test, 62 males and 56 females were classified as low-, medium-, and high-RFI. Enteric methane emission was measured in 46 animals; 23 males used for RFI_met measurement plus 23 females (22 low-RFI_growth and 24 high-RFI_growth). Diet consisted of Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu hay (445 g/kg DM) and concentrate (555 g/kg DM). During the RFI_growth and RFI_met phases, DMI was lower in the animals with low RFI, with no difference in ADG. Residual feed intake was -0.359 and 0.367 kg DM/d for low- and high-RFI animals. Enteric methane emission (g/d, g/kg BW^0.75 and g/kg ADG) did not differ between RFI_growth classes. Enteric methane emission (g/d) was higher in high RFI_met and lower in low RFI_met males. Spearman correlations among traits obtained during both tests, which were high between metabolic BW (r = 0.959) and between DMI (r = 0.718), and zero between ADG (r = -0.062), resulted in moderate correlation between RFI_growth and RFI_met (r = 0.412). However, it is not possible to confirm that high-efficiency animals release less enteric methane, since different results were obtained when enteric methane was compared between the RFI_growth and RFI_met classes.

Study region
This paper describes a major ensemble-forecasts verification effort for inflows of three large-scale river basins of Brazil: Upper São Francisco, Doce, and Tocantins Rivers.

Study focus
In experimental scenarios, inflow forecasts were generated forcing one hydrological model with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from three selected models of the TIGGE database. This study provides information on the regional ensemble performance and also evaluates how different QPF models respond for the different basins and what happens with the use of combined QPF in a greater ensemble.

New hydrological insights for the region
This work presents one of the first extensive efforts to evaluate ensemble forecasts for large-scale basins in South America using TIGGE archive data. Results from these scenarios provide validation criteria and confirm that ensemble forecasts depend on the particular EPS used to run the hydrological model and on the basin studied. Furthermore, the use of the Super Ensemble seems to be a good strategy in terms of performance and robustness. The importance of the TIGGE database is also highlighted.

Ações de Educação ambiental em espaços não formais são desenvolvidas com diferentes objetivos, dentre eles destacamos a divulgação cientifica. Nesta perspectiva, no contexto da disciplina Estágio Supervisionado I: vivências em espaços não formais, ofertada para uma turma de graduandos em Biologia, no âmbito do Plano Nacional de Formação de Professores da Educação Básica – PARFOR, em execução na Universidade do Estado do Pará, mediados pela pedagogia dialógico-problematizadora a partir do uso do material didático PROBIO Educação Ambiental, foi realizada junto à comunidade que transita na Praça do Estrela, município de Castanhal/PA, a divulgação cientifica de temas relacionados à Conservação da Biodiversidade do Bioma Amazônia, com abordagem de conflitos socioambientais e espécies ameaçadas de extinção. O procedimento metodológico envolveu a aplicação de um questionário para os graduandos avaliando contribuições do material didático utilizado. A partir dos dados obtidos procedeu-se a análise de conteúdo, cujos resultados são apresentados no presente trabalho.