Analysis of the hydrological disaster occurred in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil in September 2023: Vulnerabilities and risk management capabilities
Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá, Daniela Ferreira Ribeiro, Jose Antonio Marengo, Marcelo Enrique Seluchi, Demerval Aparecido Gonçalves, Larissa Antunes da Silva, Luz Adriana Cuartas Pineda, Silvia Midori Saito
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104645
The socio-ecological Nexus+ approach used by the Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change
Some evidence on the reduction of the disasters impact due to natural hazards in the Americas and the Caribbean after the 1990s
Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Volume 75, 1 June 2022, 102984
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102984
This article identifies the method through which the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and the subsequent frameworks affected the outcomes of Disaster Risk Reduction policies among the countries in the Americas and the Caribbean, particularly in data with high reliability in the databases used for monitoring the progress of these policies. This article will address the following research question: Did the international agenda adopted by the UN for Disaster Risk Reduction after the 1990s lead to a positive impact measured in terms of deaths caused by disasters due to natural hazards in the Americas and Caribbean? The EM-DAT disaster database includes data spanning over the course of 120 years, is long enough to match statistical criteria, and includes information for all countries; therefore, data from this database has been adopted for this research. The analysis was conducted on both regional and national scales, as well as for each natural disaster subgroup adopted by EM-DAT, and the results are divided into two periods: before 1990 and after 1990. On a regional scale, a 140% increase was noted in the number of disasters after the 1990s, whereas the number of deaths decreased by 70%. On the national scale, similar behavior was noted for majority of countries and for all subgroups of di- sasters. In this article, a simple but innovative methodology is proposed for analyzing the impacts in each country, thereby making it possible to exclude some disasters with an anomalous impact, without affecting the analysis and results.
Brazil’s Amazonian deforestation: the role of landholdings in undesignated public lands
Aurora Miho Yanai1,2 · Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça1,3 · Leonardo Guimarães Ziccardi4 · Maria Isabel Sobral Escada5 · Philip Martin Fearnside1,3
Regional Environmental Change
Received: 6 August 2021 / Accepted: 15 February 2022
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01897-0
The impact of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is a global concern, and land occupation in public lands contributes to increased deforestation rates. Little is known about the spread of deforestation in landholdings in undesignated public lands located on cattle-ranching frontiers. We use a case of Matupi District, a hotspot of deforestation along the Transamazon Highway in the southern portion of Brazil’s state of Amazonas, where spontaneous squatters and land grabbers are the main actors occupying landholdings. We assessed the advance of deforestation and the spatial distribution of landholdings in relation to the main road and to land categories (e.g., protected areas and undesignated public land). Landholdings up to 400 ha were the majority in numbers (52%) and larger landholdings (>400 ha) were located farther into the forest, contributing to expanding the deforestation frontier. By 2018, 80% of the remaining forest was in larger landholdings (>400 ha), increasing the susceptibility of this forest to being cleared in the coming years. Thus, greater attention should be given to these larger landholdings to control the spread of deforestation. By analyzing the clearing pattern in the landholdings, deforestation monitoring can focus on specifc sizes of landholdings that contribute most to the advance of the deforestation frontier. Brazil’s current trend to facilitating the legalization of illegal claims in undesignated public lands, such as the large and medium landholdings we studied, implies vast areas of future deforestation and should be reversed.
Invasões de terras públicas criam novo polos de desmatamento na Amazônia
A atividade madeireira e a pecuária em grandes áreas de terras públicas não destinadas provocam a expansão das fronteiras do desmatamento na Amazônia. Em estudo inédito publicado na revista Regional Environmental Change, pesquisadores de quatro instituições do Brasil e do Exterior alertam para a falta de monitoramento e de ações do poder público para coibir o avanço do desmatamento ilegal.
A pesquisa foi realizada no distrito de Santo Antônio do Matupi, em Manicoré, localizado às margens da BR-230, a Rodovia Transamazônica, que se tornou um dos grandes polos de desmatamento no sul do estado do Amazonas. Para melhor se analisar a área, os pesquisadores dividiram a região de Matupi em diferentes classes de uso, inclusive terras públicas não destinadas, que são áreas federais ou estaduais para as quais o governo não especificou qualquer uso específico, como terra indígena, unidade de conservação ou assentamento.
“O sul do Amazonas é o palco de um rápido avanço do desmatamento que está saindo do tradicional “arco do desmatamento” e migrando para o norte. A geografia dessa atividade deve mudar radicalmente com a planejada ‘reconstrução’ da Rodovia BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) e a construção da AM-366, que sairia da BR-319 para abrir a vasta área de floresta intacta na parte oeste do Amazonas. Isto abrirá uma enorme área de terras públicas sem destinação para a entrada de grileiros, sem-terras, madeireiras, e outros atores. Os processos estudados no atual trabalho seriam repetidos em grande escala”, explica um dos autores do estudo, Philip Fearnside, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA).
Na Amazônia brasileira, o aumento da perda florestal está localizado principalmente em novas fronteiras de desmatamento que estão próximas a áreas de pecuária. Em Matupi, por exemplo, os estudos concluíram que os principais desmatadores são os ocupantes de terras com áreas maiores de 400 hectares.
Outro dado observado é que as terras ocupadas por grileiros, posseiros e grandes fazendeiros refletem o baixo nível de monitoramento e governança nesta área do país. De acordo com Philip Fearnside, o “desmatamento ilegal zero” prometido pelo Brasil na COP26 poderia ser alcançado interrompendo o desmatamento, mas, no atual cenário brasileiro, o caminho sendo tomado para cumprir essa meta é a simples legalização do desmatamento ilegal.
“O entendimento dos processos de ocupação e desmatamento nas terras públicas não destinadas é essencial tanto para desenhar melhores abordagens de controle quanto para subsidiar decisões mais acertadas sobre a construção das estradas que deslancham a ocupação e o desmatamento. Os impactos das estradas que abrem essas áreas são muitíssimo maiores do que os Estudos de Impacto Ambiental/Relatórios de Impacto Ambiental e os discursos políticos levam a crer”, destaca Philip Fearnside.
Contato: Philip Martin Fearnside
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)
philip.fearnside@gmail.com
Highlights
– Estudo constatou rápido avanço desmatamento no sul do estado do Amazonas em terras públicas não destinadas (“terras devolutas”).
– As áreas mais desmatadas são ocupadas por grileiros, posseiros e fazendeiros em ramais partindo da Rodovia Transamazônica.
– Terras públicas correm alto risco de desmatamento devido à especulação fundiária na região e a ausência de políticas públicas que coíbem a grilagem de terras.
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in Latin America: Knowledge Gaps and the Urgency to Translate Science Into Action
Mônica M. C. Muelbert1,2*, Margareth Copertino2,3, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha3,4, Mirtha Noemi Lewis5,6,7, Andrei Polejack8,9, Angelina del Carmen Peña-Puch10 and Evelia Rivera-Arriaga10
Frontiers in Climate - Predictions and Projections
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.748344
Climate Change hazards to social-ecological systems are well-documented and the time to act is now. The IPCC-SROCC used the best available scientific knowledge to identify paths for effective adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere. Despite all the evidence highlighted by SROCC and the key role of the ocean and cryosphere for climate change at all levels, Latin America (LA) faces challenges to take effective action mostly due to socio-economic vulnerability, political instability and overall technical capacities. Countries have adopted diverse actions as the information needed by policy makers has been made available, not necessarily in accessible and inclusive ways. Regional imbalance in economic development, technological level, capacity development, societal involvement, and governmental oversight have contributed to skewed geographical and technological gaps of knowledge on key ecosystems and specific areas preventing effective climate actions/solutions. We analyze the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the region as proxies to the incorporation of IPCC recommendations. The gaps and opportunities for the uptake of ocean and climate science to political decision making is discussed as five key aspects: (i) climate assessment information and regional policies, (ii) knowledge production, (iii) knowledge accessibility, (iv) knowledge impact to policy, and (v) long term monitoring for decision making. We advocate that the uptake of SROCC findings in LA policies can be enhanced by: (a) embracing local realities and incorporating local, traditional and indigenous knowledge; (b) empowering locals to convey local knowledge to global assessments and adapt findings to local realities; (c) enhancing regional research capabilities; and (d) securing long-term sustainable ocean observations. Local and regional participation in knowledge production and provision enhances communication pathways, climate literacy and engagement which are key for effective action to be reflected in governance. Currently, the lack of accessible and inclusive information at the local level hampers the overall understanding, integration and engagement of the society to mitigate climate effects, perpetuates regional heterogeneity and threatens the efforts to reverse the course of climate change in LA. Local researchers should be empowered, encouraged, rewarded and better included in global climate-ocean scientific assessments.
Doenças transmitidas por vetores no Brasil: mudanças climáticas e cenários futuros de aquecimento global
Bruno Moreira de Carvalhoa Letícia Palazzi Perezb Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirac Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsond Marco Aurélio Hortae Andréa Sobralf Sandra de Souza Hacong
Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate
v. 11, n.3, p. 383-404, dez/2020
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33985
RESUMO
As mudanças climáticas afetam a saúde humana direta ou indiretamente, e seus impactos são complexos, não lineares e dependentes de diversas variáveis. Entre os diversos impactos das mudanças climáticas na saúde estão a alteração na distribuição espacial de doenças transmitidas por vetores. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo apresenta e discute mudanças na distribuição espacial da adequabilidade climática para leishmaniose visceral, febre amarela e malária no Brasil, em diferentes cenários de aquecimento global. Para a construção dos modelos de adequabilidade climática nos cenários de aquecimento, foi utilizado o algoritmo de máxima entropia (MaxEnt). Os modelos foram baseados em variáveis climáticas geradas pelo modelo climático regionalizado Eta-HadGEM2 ES, no período baseline (1965- 2005) e no cenário RCP 8.5, representando os níveis de aquecimento global de 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) e 4,0oC (2071-2099). As três doenças estudadas são amplamente influenciadas pelo clima e apresentaram diferentes padrões de distribuição no País. Em cenários de aquecimento global, a leishmaniose visceral apresentou condições climáticas mais favoráveis à sua ocorrência nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil, enquanto o clima nas regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste se tornou gradativamente mais adequado para febre amarela. Nos cenários para malária foi observado aumento nas condições climáticas favoráveis à sua alta incidência na Mata Atlântica, onde atualmente ocorrem casos extra- amazônicos. Os cenários aqui apresentados representam diferentes consequências possíveis para o setor de saúde e da adoção ou não de diferentes medidas para mitigar as mudanças climáticas no Brasil, como a redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa.
ABSTRACT
Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) and 4,0oC (2071- 2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature
BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA1, ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA2, RENATO C. FEITOSA1, MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA3, WASHINGTON L. JUNGER2 and SANDRA HACON1
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências
Acad. Bras. Ciênc. 91 (03) • 2019
10.1590/0001-3765201920180748
Abstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGt values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. the WBGt was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). Results: the projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGt that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGt above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. Conclusions: these results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises.